West Indies’ recent history suggests they are unlikely to secure a stunning series win this week.
Remarkably, they have not won consecutive away Test matches – other than in Bangladesh – since 1993 in Australia, and have not won at Lord’s since 1988.
Not that England are incapable of being caught out again. Their visitors were brilliant with the bat on day five in Leeds, with Joe Root’s side wilting under pressure.
But much more likely is the visitors’ inconsistency plaguing them again, and England improving enough to win the series.
That a couple of the hosts’ individuals are chasing history this week should improve their chances.
Joe Root equalled AB de Villiers’ record for registering a half-century in 12 consecutive Test matches on his home ground last week, and should have it all to himself within the next few days.
Jimmy Anderson, meanwhile, is three scalps away from becoming just the third fast bowler in the history of Test cricket to take 500 wickets.
Taking all of that into account, here are our tips for the third Test:
Joe Root: Over 41.5 1st innings runs –
We tip it every time, but Root is astonishingly consistent.
He has not fallen short of 41 in any of his last six innings, so this is a generous price.
Top England 1st innings bowler: Jimmy Anderson –
Anderson has led his side’s wicket-taking in the first innings of their last three Tests.
His record at Lord’s is also excellent with 81 wickets at 27.8 in 20 matches – particularly considering it is a batting-friendly ground.
Roston Chase: Under 21.5 1st innings runs –
Chase has struggled in this series, registering a high score of 30 amid some good performances from those around him.
That he has been dismissed by four different England bowlers in a manner of different fashions hints at deep-rooted issues that are unlikely to be solved this week.
Shai Hope: Over 25.5 1st innings runs –
Even if his side lose this series, Shai Hope is clearly a positive for the West Indies to take home with them.
He became the first batsman to score two centuries in a Headingley Test last week, and should enjoy favourable conditions at Lord’s.
England to win –
England went off as 1/14 favourites at Headingley, a price that appeared to sum up the chasm between the sides at the time.
So despite a shock result, this considerably-longer price for a home victory is too good to turn down.