The Red Sox, off to a terrible start, fired their manager and five coaches over the weekend, while the Jays won another series
A couple of things I noticed about the Toronto Blue Jays, after their series win over the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, that might bode well for bettors.
One, they appear to be sorting out the back end of their bullpen. Jeff Hoffman’s struggles as a closer are well documented, including giving up a pivotal home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 7 of the World Series last fall.
With a 6.94 ERA, and three saves as Jays closer to start the season, the club last week bumped him from that role, and moved in Louis Varland. Hard to argue with Varland’s three saves and a 0.60 ERA over the past week, since the move was made.
But in yesterday’s 4-2 win over the Guardians, an early afternoon game, Blue Jays manager John Schneider again went with Varland to close out the game, after he had thrown 30 pitches to close out Saturday’s 5-3 Jays’ win.
Hoffman, though, threw a perfect eighth inning yesterday – 24 pitches, 15 strikes, one strikeout, one walk.
Hoffman’s issues haven’t been stuff; it’s been the stuff between the ears. Building back confidence in a set-up role, gradually working in closer opportunities as the summer plays out, is going to give the Jays a nice one-two punch to close out games as the summer plays out.
And secondly, the Jays are starting to hit – 8th in MLB this morning, with a team .255 batting average, .700 OPS, .386 slugging percentage (15th in MLB). Also, the Jays don’t strike out a lot – just 188 so far this season, best in MLB. They’re 25th in the majors though, with 25 homeruns, and that needs to pick up.
BEST BETS
MLB
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. EST, Rogers Centre, Toronto
Blue Jays Moneyline -140
At Betway this morning, the Jays are betting favorites, at -140, with the Red Sox +120. Against the spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+150), Red Sox +1.5 (-200), and the Over/Under 7.5 (O +110, U -130).
I am going to sprinkle some money over a few bets on this game this morning, starting with Blue Jays Moneyline.
Jays’ starting pitcher Dylan Cease is rolling with a 1-0 record, 2.10 ERA, and is third in the American League with 44 Ks, and a 1.29 WHIP, over 25.2 innings. Cease hasn’t allowed a homer. His most recent game was a 12 strikeout, 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels.
The Blue Jays are 12-15 this morning, fourth in the American League East, 5.5 games out of first. The Red Sox are last – 11-17, seven games out, and fired their manager, Alex Cora, plus five coaches, over the weekend.
The Red Sox counter with Ranger Suarez tonight, 1-2, 4.00 ERA tonight, just 19 strikeouts in 27 innings.
The Red Sox are coming off a 5-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles yesterday, but the Jays under Cease, who’s heating up, on home field, are the value side of this line.
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Over the 7.5 Run Line +110
This one might be a reach with two quality starters going, but Jays scored a lot of runs in the three-game weekend series against Cleveland – 15 total – and are looking to keep the momentum, while the Red Sox are coming off a game Saturday where they bashed out 17 runs in a win over Baltimore.
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Ranger Suarez 5+ Strikeouts +135
Yeah, the Jays don’t strike out a lot, but Suarez struck that lineup out six times over seven innings last season with Philadelphia, in his only career outing against the Blue Jays, an 8-0 win. He had six strikeouts in a recent win over the St. Louis Cardinals, and four in a loss to the New York Yankees in his last start.
Suarez is Boston’s big off-season free agent signing, and he’ll be amped up after the managerial changes over the weekend, looking to build on the team’s two-game winning streak.
