Our NFL Week 10 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
Still recovering from last night’s Thursday night shocker in East Rutherford, the Washington Commanders, led by 249 yards of passing by Jayden Daniels, upset the now 5-3-1 New York Giants 24-21, hurtling the Commanders back into the NFC East conversation.
I had the Giants -1.5 pick going in, factoring in Cam Skattebo at running back, back from injury, along with rainy conditions, particularly nasty before kickoff, giving the Giants the edge. At least I thought.
What a game by Daniels, though. So, I took a beating on the Under 40.5 call and the spread. The weather wasn’t enough to keep the scoring down.
We live to fight another day, right? And there are plenty of ways to make it back.
Here are my NFL Week 10 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 10 Betting Landscape
Man, what a disastrous time that was for sportsbooks last weekend, with favourites running the table – 14 of 15 games, to be exact. Then there’s the impact of Tuesday’s trade deadline.
The Las Vegas Raiders traded quarterback Kirk Cousins to the Minnesota Vikings (6-2); the Tennessee Titans traded safety Amani Hooker to the Bills, filling a huge void there for 7-1 Buffalo; the Kansas City Chiefs traded for receiver Josh Downs; and the San Francisco acquired wide receiver Keenan Allen. There were 18 in-season trades across the NFL this year.
So, sportsbooks are looking for a return to normal. Will last week’s success encourage recreational bettors to continue piling on to the favourites? Or will last night’s Commanders’ upset win provide a valuable lesson?
In NFL betting picks, look at the Seattle Seahawks-Las Vegas Raiders’ spread, which moved from Seattle -3.5 before the Cousins trade to -6.5 post-trade. Jacksonville is laying more than 10 points against Tennessee. Buffalo is favoured by more than a touchdown against the Jets. The Rams are 9.5-point favourites against Arizona.
Winning comfortably and covering a large point spread are two different things.
The Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all on a bye this week, while the Detroit Lions and New England Patriots meet in Munich on Sunday morning.
NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread
Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) vs Seattle Seahawks
In NFL betting, I think the market is overreacting a bit to the Cousins trade and the Raiders handing the keys to rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
Watching his post-trade news conference this week, Mendoza doesn’t lack confidence in his abilities, which is understandable, considering he was the first overall draft pick in April. Good head on his shoulders, still quite humble. And he’s had ten weeks to mentor under Cousins.
Sam Darnold is sidelined, and Drew Lock is expected to start, dealing with elbow and oblique issues. The Raiders are 6-3 ATS this season and will be on home field, with Raiders Nation cheering loudly for Mendoza to get off to a great start to his NFL career.
If Mendoza can limit turnovers against an elite Seattle defence, then we’re onto something.
My pick: Raiders +6.5 (-110)
Houston Texans (-4.5) vs Cleveland Browns
This spread has been moving, from -3 earlier, as the market has become increasingly confident in the Texans.
Deshaun Watson returns at quarterback, but the Browns have a difficult matchup against Houston’s pass rush.
Still, Houston is laying more than a field goal on the road, and a low-scoring game could leave the Browns within striking distance. Get your bet in now, because if this number moves to -6, I’d be more reluctant.
My pick: Texans -4.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Getting more than a field goal with Pittsburgh in a divisional matchup, with first place in the AFC North on the line, is appealing.
Cincinnati is favoured and at home, with quarterback Joe Burrow playing at an MVP level. But the Steelers don’t need to win outright, and they already beat this Bengals squad once – 30-27, covering as a 3.5-point underdog. So they can compete against that explosive Bengals’ passing attack.
Pittsburgh has been excellent against the spread – 6-2 this season, tied for the NFL’s second-best record, and they are coming off a bye week. The Bengals are just 4-4 ATS.
My pick: Steelers +3.5 (-115)
NFL Week 10 Betting Trends
The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bengals, winning five of those games outright. That record, combined with the value of getting the extra half-point above a field goal, leans toward Pittsburgh +3.5.
