Our NFL Week 9 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
The Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business last night on the against-the-spread front, rolling over the -9.5 on their way to a 33-10 blowout over the reeling Baltimore Ravens.
The NFL just crossed the halfway mark of the season, and teams must decide what to do by the Nov. 10 trade deadline. Do they move to strengthen their playoff chances or start preparing for next season?
When it comes to ATS, bettors are distinguishing confirmed trades, like the trade of All-Pro defensive end Jeffery Simmons to the Chicago Bears, which is already affecting the Bears’ betting lines, from plenty of speculation. People are looking at the Bears very differently after their impressive 34-17 road victory over the Seattle Seahawks Monday night, with Simmons running roughshod over Seattle.
Today’s social media brush fire involves the Ravens entertaining a trade for running back Derrick Henry.
Midseason records don’t tell the entire story. How many of you feel comfortable putting money down on the Denver Broncos these days, despite their 6-2 record? Win-loss records alone can be misleading.
A team with a mediocre record could offer better ATS value than a division leader routinely asked to cover large numbers.
Here are my NFL Week 9 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 9 Betting Landscape
Injuries are really taking a toll across the entire NFL landscape. Offensive line injuries, depleted secondaries and questions at quarterback can all significantly impact point spreads.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson is in concussion protocol, meaning Shedeur Sanders will start for the Cleveland Browns in their game against the New Orleans Saints. In NFL betting at Betway, the Browns are 3.5-point underdogs. The Browns are 5-3, and the Saints are 2-5 at home going into the game.
Joe Milton will make his first NFL start for the Philadelphia Eagles against the New York Giants in Philly. The Giants are 3.5-point favourites. The Eagles opened as 5.5-point favourites. That’s a nine-point swing.
The Atlanta Falcons have ruled out running back Brian Robinson and receiver Zachariah Branch with hamstring injuries for their game against the 6-2 Cincinnati Bengals. Offensive tackle Cameron Williams has been ruled out with an ankle injury. The Bengals are now -3.5.
Other injuries to watch for ATS bettors: WR A.J. Brown with the New England Patriots (ankle), RB TreVeyon Henderson with the New England Patriots (medical issue), WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers (hamstring), TE Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys (ankle), and WR Emeka Egbuka of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (foot), all questionable. WR Garrett Wilson with the New York Jets has been ruled out with a concussion.
NFL Week 9 Betting Trends
According to Action Network data cited by NFL Ticket, big favourites are struggling to cover – ATS record of 6-20-3 for favourites of 7+ points through Week 8.
Four teams – the Bears, Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers – lead the NFL with 6-2 ATS records, rewarding spread bettors out there.
NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread
Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) vs Dallas Cowboys
The Colts have been offloading established guys in trades – OL Quenton Nelson and DT DeForest Buckner, with rumours surrounding running back Jonathan Taylor, wide receiver Josh Downs and defensive tackle Grover Stewart.
Has the market overreacted to the Colts’ rebuilding strategy? Plus, how many of you have any confidence in the Cowboys covering anything?
My pick: Colts +5.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) vs Chicago Bears
Another interesting underdog play. Tampa isn’t necessarily the better team; I’m just saying Chicago might be getting too much love from sportsbooks after the acquisition of Simmons.
Chicago is -260 on the moneyline, which is legit, but the Bears can still win this game without covering 5.5 points.
Plus, Tampa’s defence is strong, despite their 3-5 record, ranking third in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (285.9). The Bucs are coming off a 16-0 win over the Falcons.
And don’t sleep on the Bucs running game – No. 1 in the NFL, at 168.6 yards per game. If they crank up the running game Sunday night against the Bears, that will help kill the clock and keep Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and that offence off the field.
My pick: Buccaneers +5.5 (-105)
Detroit Lions (-6.5) vs Miami Dolphins
One of the cleaner mismatches on the board. The 5-2 Lions have an efficient offence, led by quarterback Jared Goff, with his low interception rate, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs (second in the NFL in rushing with 773 yards), while the Dolphins (1-6) rank near the bottom in pass defence.
My pick: Lions -6.5 (-110)
