Shane McNichol makes his picks for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.
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The Eastern Conference Finals head back to Boston with the travelling Heat on the ropes. Not only have the Celtics wrestled away control of the series, but they have done so with the Heat barely putting up a fight in the last two games.
In Games 4 and 5, the five starters for the Miami Heat combined to post just 60 total points. Think about that for a second. Over the course of two NBA games, in the playoffs no less, the five starters on a team managed just 60 points.
Miami played both of those games without Tyler Herro, this season’s NBA Sixth Man of the Year. His absence is wildly notable on the offensive end of the floor. Without him, Miami is left to turn to Jimmy Butler to do everything, and Butler is being blanketed by some of the longest, rangiest wing defenders in the league.
For bettors, Game 6 is a Rorschach test. Do you see Miami mustering one last fight on the road? Or do you see a Heat team that looks half-ready for an offseason vacation?
My gut leans the latter, leading to the four picks below.
Celtics first half (-5.5) {ODDS:941439058:1.95}
If the Celtics are poised to take care of business, they won’t be inclined to let the Heat linger around for long in this game. Assuming we’ll see the Heat either put up a fight or tuck their tails, it should be apparent as early as the first quarter.
Betting quarters can be fluky, but over the 24 minutes of the first half, there’s no reason to think Boston can’t take control of this game and put it out of reach.
PJ Tucker under 7.5 points {ODDS:941777121:1.80}
You could talk yourself into some shooting regression sparking a hot night from Tucker. He’s made just one of his last six attempts from long range and is shooting under 38 per cent from the field in this series.
Even if he gets a few shots to go in this game, his game is hyper-focused on the 3-point shot and he’s not likely to hurt you from the free throw line or inside the arc. He has only topped 7.5 points in one of his last five games and three of his last ten.
Playing bigger than his frame at power forward, especially after a long playoff run with the Bucks last year, looks to be taking a toll on Tucker’s legs. He’s not likely to post a hot shooting night on the road at this point in the season
Heat under 95.5 points {ODDS:941439210:1.95}
Like Tucker, you could convince yourself that the entire Miami team is due for an outburst. Rock-bottom shooting percentages tend to normalize, but these cold shooting nights aren’t a statistical anomaly. There are clear and obvious reasons for Miami’s struggles.
Butler is being forced to do too much, while facing elite perimeter defense. Bam Adebayo is running uphill against the two-headed monster of Al Horford and Robert Williams on the interior. Tyler Herro has been off the floor and Miami’s other shooters, like the dreadfully slumping Max Strus, can’t find enough open space to make shots.
Worst of all, the hobbled veteran Kyle Lowry has been an absolute drain on Miami’s lineup in the playoffs. In his last five games, Lowry is shooting 13 per cent from long range and just 22 per cent from the field. He’s posting just 3.0 points per game in that period to 2.4 turnovers, and Miami was collectively -33 points to the opponent with Lowry in the game over than span.
There are no guarantees he plays tonight, but if he does, jump on not just Miami’s under but plenty of his player props to go under as well.
Al Horford over 10.5 points {ODDS:941777098:1.87}
On the Boston side, this is the most interesting number on the board and simply too low given the way Horford has played lately.
He has averaged 12.8 points in his last four games and 12.9 for the playoffs, modestly above this mark, but he has been reliably into double-digit scoring in 10 of the 15 postseason games he’s played.
He’ll be ready for the big stage of a critical Game 6. As Miami coach Erik Spoelstra tosses his last gasp at the Boston attack, Horford’s steady presence could be what buoys Boston and leads the Celtics to the NBA Finals.
