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After Miami stole Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on the road, Game 4 took on even greater importance. The TD Garden in Boston will be absolutely rocking as the Celtics have a chance to even the series before heading back to South Florida.

A Miami victory would put the Heat just one win away from their second NBA Finals appearance in the last three seasons. That won’t be easy, with Boston favored by seven points on their home floor and both teams piling up names on the injury report.

Heat scorer Tyler Herro is already confirmed to miss the game, but other key contributors like Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, and Kyle Lowry are battling ailments as well. Boston is not in the clear, with Jayson Tatum expected to tough it out and play, but the status of several other Celtics remains up in the air.

Sorting out the injury mess makes this game a minefield for bettors, yet there’s still plenty to like on the board when looking for value in this matchup.

Max Strus over 18.5 points + rebounds + assists 

With today’s news that Tyler Herro will not be available for Miami tonight, Strus emerges as the most logical member of the Heat to see additional minutes and increase production in the absence of the NBA’s Sixth Man of the year.

This number, even with Herro on the court, feels a touch low for Strus. In Miami’s last five games, he is averaging 14.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, well clear of the number available tonight. Some of that is due to hot shooting, some thanks to two uncharacteristic double-digit rebounding performances against Philadelphia.

Whatever the case may be, Strus is playing better basketball right now than this number indicates, especially with the added expectations placed on him with Herro sidelined.

Over 206.5 total points 

This number feels low, given what we’ve seen early in this series. Both teams have cleared at least 102 points in every game so far, with the three total scores averaging 222.

Despite both of these teams having excellent defenses, we haven’t seen the grind-it-out, slower style of basketball many expected from this series. The high scoring outputs aren’t hinging on outlier 3-point shooting either. Boston has been red hot, hitting 41 per cent from deep in the series – high, but not otherworldly or unexplainable. Miami, meanwhile, has made just 32 per cent from long range in the series’ three games so far.

With both teams nursing a long list of injuries, some might expect offensive output to slow down. I’ll flip it and say that the coaches dipping further into their benches should lead to more scoring, with these rock solid defenses now making switches on the fly.

Miami should be poised for their best shooting game of the series yet, even in a road environment and a loud Boston crowd.

Miami Heat moneyline 

If that shooting regression comes, there’s no reason to think Miami can’t steal another win on the road and take control of this series. Herro’s absence will be felt, but Boston’s injuries are just as vital.

If Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are unavailable or hobbled, Miami will be prepared to exploit the ensuing mismatches.

Al Horford under 1.5 3-pointers made 

In the two games he has played in this series, Horford has been shooting well from beyond the arc. He’s made five of his seven attempts, for an unsustainable 71 per cent.

Prior to missing Game 1 of this series, he was ice cold late in the Conference Semifinals. Horford took eight deep balls over the final three games of Boston’s win over Milwaukee – and missed all eight of those attempts.

With a 48 per cent 3-point percentage in the postseason, he’s likely due to bounce back to earth with another cold shooting night soon, so betting on that outcome tonight makes sense. He’s made fewer than 1.5 shots from long range in five of his 13 playoff games this year, but based on the volume of his long range shooting, isn’t likely to keep up that pace.