The horse racing broadcaster offers up his best bets for the Flat season finale at Ascot, with a selection for every race on the card.
The 2026 Flat season culminates in Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday, with all seven races being shown on ITV and a new Champion Jockey crowned in Billy Loughnane. Very few have made the transition as swiftly from being champion apprentice in 2023, and it is less than four years since his first ride on Starfighter at Wolverhampton on 24 October 2022. His first winner took a while, but since then his calendar-year totals in the UK have been 6, 130, 162, 222 and currently 224. That 224 also includes a Classic with Bow Echo, and it is a shame that the standout three-year-old colt had his career curtailed by an injury that means he does not make the line-up on Saturday.
The day starts with the second running of the two-year-old conditions race, which has not yet been in existence long enough to be awarded Pattern status. As he has already been gelded, ARAPAHO GOLD 5/2 (12:55 Ascot) will not be eligible to run in three-year-old-only Group 1s next season, so connections will be keen for him to add to his Gimcrack victory here. It was as a result of not being able to run in the Middle Park that he ran in the Group 2 Mill Reef under a penalty and, even though he lost his unbeaten record, he came out as the best horse at the weights. He does walk the line a little temperamentally but has also shown great determination in a finish and, on a day that tends to be dominated by the leading commercial operations, a success for the €42,000 purchase would make a refreshing change.
The absence of Scandinavia from the Long Distance Cup throws the race wide open. The St Leger winner Highwayman will be bidding to give Dylan Browne McMonagle a successful return from injury, whilst Caballo De Mar will be looking to back up his Cadran victory over Scandinavia. He had a hard race that day, however, and it may be worth siding with GREGORY 3/1 (13:30 Ascot), who takes a step up in class after pulverising his rivals in two Listed contests on his return from injury. He gave owners Wathnan their first ever success when winning the Queen’s Vase back in 2023 but was then found wanting the following season before injury intervened. In a renewal that lacks the usual standout stayer, he will have few better chances of succeeding in Group 1 company.
Next up is the British Champions Sprint, where Almeraq is looking to finally prove we have a dominant force in this division. His narrow success here in the Jubilee at the Royal meeting was supplemented by a thumping of his rivals at Haydock, but he was beaten in between in the July Cup and, historically, upsets in sprinting Group 1s have been commonplace. As a result, his short price in a reasonably sized field makes little appeal and instead an each-way bet on MITBAAHY 28/1 (EW) (14:05 Ascot) could be worth chancing. He has run well in some top-level handicaps this season and did well to finish as close to Kind Of Blue at Kempton, where the pace was against his come-from-behind style. After all, this race was won by a 200-1 shot last year and half the winners in the last 10 years have been 16-1 or bigger.
Whilst the jockeys’ title is signed and sealed on Saturday, the trainers’ title runs over the calendar year. This has attracted a bit of comment in recent days, but it was a move by the trainers themselves via the National Trainers Federation in 2016 and means that, whilst the level of prize money on which the title is based drops off significantly, the Balding v Aidan O’Brien battle could last for another couple of months. If Andrew Balding is to prevail, then KALPANA 6/5 (14:40 Ascot) needs to show that her hard race at York, when rather scrambling home, has not left a mark. She was once again below par in the Arc but did bounce back last season from a similar disappointment and is looking for a record-breaking third consecutive victory in the contest. She does go really well at Ascot and anything like her King George performance would be good enough in a year where, with the notable exception of Diamond Necklace, the three-year-old fillies have not looked a vintage bunch.
The three-year-olds have a much better chance in the QEII courtesy of Gstaad, Talk Of New York and Zavateri. MORE THUNDER 8/1 (15:20 Ascot) should not be underestimated, though, and will be far better suited by this straight mile than he was on the round course when last running here in July. He is a white-knuckle ride with his hold-up style but is often very strong at the finish, and Tom Marquand knows him well.
The big race, the Champion Stakes, once again features a clash between Ombudsman and CALANDAGAN 2/1 (16:00 Ascot), and it can lead to the French-trained gelding once again coming out on top. He has had the same preparation, being given a break since the King George, and was well on top at the line last season. He will be eligible to run in the Arc for the first time next season, so the path trodden may well look different, but for now a repeat Champion Stakes win looks well within his compass and would provide Francis Graffard with another major victory.
The meeting closes with the Balmoral Handicap over 1m, where the progressive younger horses like Scoville and Gavriel come up against last year’s winner Crown Of Oaks and standing dishes like Hickory and EBT’S GUARD 9/1 (EW) (16:35 Ascot), who was second last year and has a 5lb pull with Crown Of Oaks. His admirable consistency has meant little respite from the handicapper, but it also makes a double-figure price look appealing from an each-way perspective.
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