The horse racing broadcaster provides his best bets for Saturday's racing at Newmarket, including a pick for the opening race at Haydock.
Little doubt about the highlight of the seven ITV races on Saturday. It may be dubbed Cambridgeshire day, but the Cheveley Park is the best juvenile race of the season so far bringing together four top class fillies. With the ground drying it is hoped they all stand their ground as it really is a race to savour.
Preference is for SENORITA BONITA 7/4 (14:27 Newmarket) who has a verdict over Libertango and Alwaysanangel on the July Course and who under the fast conditions may just have a gear or two more than Sun Goddess. The Crisfords have an outstanding record with Breeze Up Purchases this season and the way Senorita Bonita put distance between herself and her rivals in France last time was impressive. Sun Goddess has had an unusually large number of runs for a juvenile but has already notched two Group 1’s and a valuable Sales pot. Sha also dismantled her rivals in the Moyglare but that was over 7f which may now suit her better. Libertango will be ridden from off the pace as connections feel that would give her the best chance of reversing the July meeting form with the selection, whilst Alwaysanangel stayed on really well that day and can’t be completely discounted, but like Sun Goddess was a winner over 7f last time. A race to savour with the 6f trip on quick ground the deciding factor in siding with Senorita Bonita.
The other Group 1 on the card is the Middle Park where INNER CITY BLUES 13/8 (15:00 Newmarket) has always been held in high regard and can justify that faith. The first clue was when William Buick made the journey up to York to partner him on his debut rather than ride at Sandown where the yard had a double. Inner City Blues won that day and whilst it would have been preferable for both his education, and to more accurately value the form, for there to be more runners in the Group 2 he won at the July meeting it will have been another stepping stone in his education. Back on fast ground Royal Ascot winner Orthodox looks the toughest nut to crack from a yard that have once again done well with their two-year-olds this season (17/78 A/E 1.48). It may be however that the Appleby juveniles may be open to a bit more improvement than usual after they were slower seeing a racecourse this season after the yard’s quiet spell around May and early June, so Inner City Blues is just preferred.
The Cambridgeshire is the big handicap on the card where the fast ground will suit ERZINDJAN 8/1 (15:40 Newmarket). He was unlucky in the race when fourth last season where he ended up drawn well away from where the race developed. T.J Kent’s stable star is only 1lb higher than his win here in May and his run at York can be overlooked as it was on ground that didn’t suit as well as acting as a prep for a repeat bid in this race, and the booking of champion jockey elect Billy Loughnane also catches the eye. Like last year he is drawn high and with the fields being small this week there will be little opportunity to assess beforehand whether that will be an issue. Overall, there is not a massive amount of pace in the field but hopefully Urban Lion can keep the nearside group in touch and Erzindjan has good horses like Gavriel and Indalo close by and on form the high numbers look the stronger bunch than those drawn low.
In the opening nursery, FIRE THUNDER 9/2 (13:22 Newmarket) has already had a couple of runs in handicaps and was undone by a steady pace in a small field last time. She looked to stay the 7f well and has proven she is competitive off this mark and whilst there are others, notably Al Samsama, with the potential to be a class above her, the experience she has gained should stand the strong travelling Fire Thunder in good stead.
Away from Newmarket ground conditions will be very different at Haydock and that should suit former Lincoln winner GODWINSON 13/2 (13.35 Haydock) in the 1m handicap. His mark has dropped markedly in his last few runs which have been on unsuitably fast ground, and he is now just 2lb higher than the Lincoln win and below the mark of his last win at Newcastle. He moved from William Haggas to the Channon yard this campaign but that was a similar switch made by the same connection’s Johan before he won the 2022 Lincoln. The soft ground could prove to be the catalyst for an improved showing.
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