Joe Champion's tips for the French Open women’s semi-finals include a victory for world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka in her huge clash with four-time champion Iga Swiatek.
Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have not clashed on a Grand Slam stage since the 2022 US Open, when Swiatek won in three sets, but the pair will face off in a blockbuster semi-final at Roland Garros on Thursday.
The big story, however, comes from the bottom half of the draw, where little-known French player Lois Boisson, ranked 361st on the WTA Tour, will meet American superstar Coco Gauff for a place in the final of her home Slam.
French Open semi-final best bets
Sabalenka to prove she’s the top dog
A lot has changed since Aryna Sabalenka and Iga last met at Grand Slam level, but Swiatek remains the queen of Roland Garros, having won the title in 2022, 2023 and last year.
However, her period of French Open dominance could come to an end on Thursday, with Sabalenka taken to defeat the Polish player and reach the final on Parisian clay for the first time.
Swiatek came into the French Open under a cloud, without a tournament win since this event last year, but she’s looked much more like her old self on her favourite courts, battling past Elena Rybakina in round four before a quarter-final win over Elina Svitolina.
While the signs are encouraging for the four-time champion, a meeting with Sabalenka, the dominant force on the WTA Tour at present, represents a step up in grade that even Swiatek could fail to contend with.
Sabalenka has looked in brilliant form in Paris, winning all five matches in straight sets, and her power could take Swiatek out of her comfort zone, as well as open up the scar tissue which has developed over the last 12 months.
The pair fought out a classic match on Madrid clay last year, which Swiatek won in third-set tiebreak, but Sabalenka held sway in their most recent meeting in Cincinnati last August, and a repeat looks likely.
Aryna Sabalenka to beat Iga Swiatek @ 8/11
Don’t write off underdog Boisson
Surprise package Lois Boisson has already achieved something monumental in reaching the semi-finals in Paris, and it would be wrong to rule her out when she takes on Coco Gauff for a spot in Saturday’s final.
Boisson, a wildcard who will jump almost 300 places in the rankings regardless of the result against Gauff, cannot be accused of benefiting from a lucky draw, beating world No.3 Jessica Pegula and sixth-ranked Mirra Andreeva to reach this stage.
Gauff, a Grand Slam winner and a French Open finalist in 2022, will pose the Frenchwoman with an even tougher task, but the American hasn’t been overly impressive at Roland Garros, and it would be wrong to write-off the underdog given what she’s achieved so far.
With the crowd almost exclusively in her corner, Boisson should be capable of keeping this competitive, and she looks worth backing with a 4.5-game handicap start against a player who has played out tight sets in each of her last three matches.
Lois Boisson +4.5 games handicap @ 6/5
