The 2026 Australian Open has reached the semi-final stage and the top four seeds in the men's draw are all still standing, as Carlos Alcaraz faces Alexander Zverev and defending champion Jannik Sinner takes on Novak Djokovic.
We take a look at Friday’s matches with our best bets for the 13th day at Melbourne Park.
Men’s Australian Open Semi-Finals Best Bets
Alcaraz could be pushed all the way by Zverev
Alcaraz and Sinner have met in the final of the last three Grand Slams and there is a strong chance that becomes four in a row on Sunday, with the world’s top two a combined 1/5 to prevail in their semi-final matches in Melbourne.
Of the pair, it’s Alcaraz who appears the more vulnerable, despite putting together a flawless run to the last four, featuring straight-sets triumphs over Adam Walton, Yannick Hanfmann, Corentin Moutet, Tommy Paul and home hope Alex de Minaur.
That’s a solid list of victims but, in semi-final rival Zverev, Alcaraz faces an opponent who has proved his equal in terms of head-to-head meetings, with the pair on six wins apiece and Zverev up 5-3 on hard courts.
The German, a beaten finalist in three Slams including last year’s Australian Open, has mental demons to overcome in the biggest moments, but he has progressed from a difficult draw to reach this stage and he knows he has what it takes to hurt Alcaraz.
While the Spaniard’s ability to handle the pressure sets him apart, it would come as a surprise if this isn’t as competitive as their two previous Grand Slam clashes – in the 2024 Australian Open quarter-finals and French Open final later that year – which went to four and five sets.
Tip 1: Carlos Alcaraz to win & over 35.5 games @ 11/10
Djokovic’s luck set to run out against super Sinner
As a 10-time Melbourne champion, Djokovic is entitled to his share of good fortune, but the Serbian legend will have been counting his blessings after booking a semi-final spot thanks to Jakub Mensik’s last-16 withdrawal and Lorenzo Musetti’s quarter-final retirement.
Djokovic hasn’t won a set since his third-round victory over Botic van de Zandschulp and his luck could run out against Sinner, who can show his ruthless streak in pursuit of a third straight Australian Open title.
While he led 3-1 in the third set when Musetti’s muscular injury forced him to step off the court, Djokovic was outplayed in losing the opening sets 6-4 6-3 and a repeat of that performance is not going to cut it against Sinner.
A dropped set against Eliot Spizzirri aside, the Italian sauntered through the early rounds in Melbourne and appeared close to the peak of his powers when easily dispatching eighth seed Ben Shelton in the quarters.
He leads Djokovic 6-4 in head-to-head meetings and, tellingly, six of the last seven have gone the way of the younger man as Sinner has become the man to beat, while his opponent’s once peerless level has dropped.
Sinner earned straight-sets wins over Djokovic at the French Open and Wimbledon last year and, if anything, the gap between the pair has only increased over the last six months.
Tip 2: Jannik Sinner to win 3-0 @ 9/10
