The battle between the human instinct of a World Cup winner and the calculated logic of big data is about to intensify...
Rugby is a numbers game, yet it is also a game that is played in the head – particularly when it comes to the suffocating pressure of the knock-out stages of a World Cup.
Throughout the 2015 tournament we have been pitching the experience of former England centre and World Cup winner Mike Tindall against the mathematical calculations of data analytics in a bid to see which can best predict how each crucial match will pan out.
Round Four was close, with the Machine just edging it after correctly calling Australia’s winning margin against Wales to take a 4-0 lead at the conclusion of the pool stages.
Yet as the unpredictable nature of knock-out rugby takes hold, can Mike use his priceless experience and inside knowledge of what it takes to go all the way in order to pull it back?
Here’s what they see happening in both of Saturday’s quarter finals.
Quarter-final 1: South Africa v Wales (Saturday, 16:00)
The Machine says:
South Africa have won 9 and lost just 1 of their last 10 internationals against Wales.
During those matches South Africa have averaged 2.9 tries per game compared to Wales’ 1.5.
South Africa have also averaged 27.9 points per game compared to Wales’ 19.8, with an average winning margin of 8.1.
9/2 – South Africa to win by 6-10
100/30 – South Africa to score exactly 3 tries
Mike says:
I do not think that this will be as high-scoring a game although I do think that the margin between the two sides will be slightly larger.
Wales will adopt the same defensive mindset as they did against Australia in terms of trying to get up in South Africa’s face. South Africa play a physical game so gain line control is key but they are just so depleted with injuries it is going to be a tough task.
Set-piece is where it is going to be won and lost between two very physical teams.
Both sides are very reliant on their set piece so it is who wins that forward battle and gets front-foot ball who will end up on top.
I can see South Africa scoring two tries with at least one coming through a rolling maul where Bismarck du Plessis tends to control the ball at the back.
I also fancy Willie le Roux to get on the scoresheet at full-back – if Wales make a few bad kicks which they did against Australia then he can create mayhem.
I’ll go for 22-10 to South Africa.
5/1 – South Africa to win by 11-15
11/2 – Bismarck du Plessis to score any time
3/1 – Willie le Roux to score any time
Quarter-final 2: New Zealand v France (Saturday, 20:00)
The Machine says:
New Zealand have won 8 and lost 2 of their last 10 internationals against France.
During those matches New Zealand have averaged 2.5 tries per game compared to France’s 1.1
New Zealand have also averaged 24.1 points per game compared to France’s 13.4, with an average winning margin of 10.7.
The head-to-head record between the two countries in World Cups is very similar, with New Zealand winning 4 and losing 2 of their 6 meetings.
During those matches New Zealand have averaged 3.34 tries and 27.17 points per game compared to France’s 1.83 tries and 18.17 points – with an average winning margin in New Zealand’s favour of 9.
5/1 – New Zealand to win by 11-15
100/30 – New Zealand to score exactly 3 tries
Mike says:
I would love to be more supportive of France but they have shown nothing in the pool stages to suggest that they are here to compete, other than a convincing win against a very poor Italy side.
Against Ireland their defence was all over the shop and they did not look like they had any idea what they were doing in attack.
This is the perfect game for New Zealand to hit their straps and I can see them winning by more than their average margin.
I can see it being a 20-point gap, with Nehe Milner-Skudder adding to his tally on the wing.
6/1 – New Zealand to win by 16-20
13/8 – Nehe Milner-Skudder to score any time
READ: Mike Tindall: England must make their mind up which way to go with their midfield
READ: The moments, players and numbers that made the 2015 pool stages the greatest ever
