The horse racing broadcaster offers up his best bets from Saturday's cards around the UK, including two from the feature races.
Nine races are split across four venues on ITV4 on Saturday, when no doubt the fallout from Constitution Hill’s run the night before at Southwell will also be much discussed.
Five of those ITV4 races come from Kempton and emphasise why the track would be such a loss, as its free‑draining nature looks likely to provide the best ground for a while – currently Good to Soft (Soft in Places). There is still the prospect of a heavy shower between now and racing, but hopefully it will not resemble the quagmire of recent weeks.
Two of the feature races look highly likely to go the way of the favourites courtesy of PRECIOUS MAN 4/5 (13:45 Kempton) in the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and JAX JUNIOR 8/13 (14:25 Kempton) in the Pendil Novices’ Chase. Precious Man travels strongly, so a flat track plays more to his strengths than chief rival One Horse Town, and he can reverse the Cheltenham form on 5 lb better terms.
Jax Junior comfortably beat Jeriko Du Reponet and Miami Magic in a beginners’ chase here in November, and the recent return to form of his yard is also a big plus. Having been just 2/36 (A/E 0.55) through December and January, the yard of Lucy Wadham are 4/14 (A/E 2.57) this month, and Jax Junior can bolster that stat further. It is also worth remembering that this is a yard which has historically outperformed the market from a huge sample (505/3507, A/E 1.12), and their runners are always worth close inspection.
My tracker bursts into life on Saturday, so the selections will be spread more widely this week. FORTUNATE MAN 13/2 (14:43 Newcastle) appears both in my tracker and in one of the ITV4 races – the Eider at Newcastle. He has been brought along steadily and has long appealed as the type for a gruelling test like this. He was sent handicap chasing straight away after being given his mark and has spent the last couple of seasons gaining experience, with the odd win along the way. Still only a 7yo, this foundation can stand him in good stead as he encounters an extreme trip for the first time. I had him marked down as a potential Midlands National horse, but there is no reason why this would not suit just as well.
The other three selections all run at Chepstow, starting with A PERFECT DAY / (14:55 Chepstow) in the final Pertemps Qualifier for the Festival. He failed to last home in very testing conditions at Wincanton last time but showed enough for long enough to suggest he can do damage off 120. The winner that day, Champagne Chic, followed up at Haydock, and his trainer Ben Clarke continues to impress (49/346, A/E 1.19). He remains very much a yard to follow. This might be more of a win objective for him than for a few others, for whom simple qualification – without compromising their marks – may be the aim. It is worth remembering that Monmiral filled the final qualification slot in this when 4th in 2024 before winning the Final itself.
DR T J ECKLEBURG / (15:40 Chepstow) seems to be coming back to life just in time to repeat his victory in this race last year. He won that off a mark of 125 and lines up 5 lb lower here, having failed to fire earlier in the season and subsequently dropping quickly in the weights. The application of cheekpieces sparked improvement at Windsor last time (a track that would not play to his strengths), and that run immediately marked this race as an obvious target.
Finally, BANDE ORGANISÉE / (17:18 Chepstow) can land the maiden bumper. He comes from a particularly strong form race, having finished 3rd on debut, with the winner, second, and fourth all winning next time. I have been waiting for him to reappear, and even a reproduction of that debut effort would make him very hard to beat.
Aintree angle
Having examined some ante-post Cheltenham betting angles in last week’s blog, focus this week switches to Aintree. Our annual reminder: with the weights for the Grand National released this week and no penalties for any horse winning from now on, this is the point in the season when several contenders suddenly take a major step forward. This is the reason the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse has been added to ITV4 coverage, with all runners holding Aintree entries, and its outcome is likely to prompt a significant shift in the ante‑post market.
One that did look interesting when the weights were published is Mayo National and Galway Plate winner WESTERN FOLD 50000/1000 , who could be worth taking an early position on at a big price.
