The horse racing broadcaster offers his selections for Thursday at Doncaster, including his bet of the day in the Fillies' Leger.
A distinctly autumnal feel sets the tone ahead of the season’s final Classic on Saturday, and with a significant amount of rain forecast for Wednesday night, horses that prefer cut in the ground are likely to get their conditions for the first time in a while.
There are five races on ITV on Doncaster’s opening day, with the first three focusing on two-year-olds: a nursery, a sales race, and a Group contest.
First up is the Nursery Handicap for two-year-olds, where Karl Burke can continue what has been an excellent juvenile season. His domestic record with youngsters this campaign stands at an impressive 46 wins from 161 runners (A/E 1.21). While his success is usually built around Conditions races, his record in nurseries has historically been less inspiring. However, this season he has bucked that trend, landing eight winners (matching his total for all of 2024) from just 24 runners, with a higher A/E of 1.46—outperforming the expected number of winners based on Exchange SPs by 46%.
Two horses, Dunkeld Dreamer and Blue on Blue, have each contributed two wins to that tally, and in the opener HALF SOVEREIGN 5/2 (13:15 Doncaster) bids to do the same. She’s been raised 4lb for her win at Newmarket, which looks fair, and she has a couple of wins on Good to Soft ground, suggesting she’ll handle the underfoot conditions. The stable has won this race twice before—with Ellthea in 2017 and Spright in 2020—and has a leading contender here to defy top weight. On that note, the old adage of backing top weights in nurseries doesn’t hold up to scrutiny (A/E 0.95), so it’s not part of the reasoning behind siding with Half Sovereign.
A big field follows for the sales race, where previous experience in similar contests counts for plenty. SONG OF THE CLYDE 6/1 (13:50 Doncaster) won a comparable race at York’s Ebor meeting—a contest that has been dominated in recent seasons by his stable. Dragon Leader failed to complete the double for Clive Cox when finishing second in 2023, and while this race can throw up surprises, especially if conditions turn testing, Song Of The Clyde still looks the safest option. It’s also worth noting an angle to watch between now and the end of the season: the record of sire Galileo Gold when conditions are soft or heavy (25 wins from 169 runners, A/E 1.67). His runner here, Golden Brown, was behind Song Of The Clyde last time but is worth considering at a big price despite having plenty to do at the weights.
Ground conditions could also play a role in the Group 3 May Hill Stakes, where the key form line appears to be the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, in which Moon Raider and AYLIN 13/2 (14:25 Doncaster) finished second and third behind Precise. Moon Raider is likely to be favourite to confirm the form, especially as she didn’t look entirely comfortable on the track that day, and this more level surface should help. However, she was under pressure from an early stage and may have been flattered by the strong tempo. Aylin, who has a win on heavy ground and represents Karl Burke, offers solid credentials. Both should handle the conditions, but Aylin’s bigger price tilts the scales in her favour.
The most solid favourite of the five ITV races—and my best bet of the day—looks to be DANIELLE 11/4 (15:00 Doncaster) in the Fillies’ Leger, the Park Hill Stakes. She proved she stays this trip when pushing the progressive Waardah all the way at Goodwood in the Lillie Langtry, with the pair pulling five lengths clear of the rest. Danielle has form with cut in the ground and was placed here behind Estrange last autumn over 10f on soft ground. She looks to have everything in her favour as she bids to make up for lost time. Given 40 days to recover from those exertions, she could be set for a strong autumn campaign—including a potential rematch with Waardah at Ascot on Champions Day in the Fillies and Mares race, if all goes to plan here. Take an early price, as she’s likely to be well supported.
Finally, regardless of how Sir Mark Prescott fares with Moon Raider in the May Hill, he has a decent chance in the 10f handicap with the consistent but rather dour IMMEDIATE EFFECT (e/w) 12/1 (15:35 Doncaster). The catalyst for further improvement could be his first encounter with softish ground, which should suit his grinding style. His sire, Study Of Man, has a solid record on soft or heavy ground (11 wins from 65 runners, A/E 1.20), and Immediate Effect has been extremely consistent this campaign. There are flashier profiles in the race—most notably handicap debutant First Principle from the in-form William Haggas yard—but Immediate Effect can at the very least make the frame again and reward each-way support.
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