The horse racing broadcaster provides his best bets for the second day of Dubai Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket.
The highlight of Dubai Future Champions Weekend is the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes, a race that will likely play a major role in shaping the ante-post pecking order for the 2-year-old colts heading towards next year’s 2000 Guineas.
Gstaad was the first to stake his claim as top of the tree with a dominant win in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, but he arrives here off the back of two narrow defeats—first to the filly Venetian Sun in the Morny, and then to today’s rival Zavateri in the National Stakes. The Eve Johnson Houghton-trained Zavateri has been one of the stories of the season, not least because of how consistently underestimated he’s been by the market. Unbeaten in all four starts, he has never started shorter than 11/2—even on debut at Salisbury.
Zavateri has shown remarkable tenacity in a finish, particularly at Goodwood when Morris Dancer looked certain to reel him in, only for Zavateri to visibly dig deep when challenged. He showed that same determination again in Ireland. However, given how closely matched these two have been, it would be a stretch to say either is head and shoulders above the field. That might be the case, though, for DISTANT STORM 2/1 (15:00 Newmarket).
Distant Storm first caught attention not just for his debut win on the July Course at Newmarket, but for how that race unfolded—six horses from that contest went on to win next time out. He was a short price to follow up at York in the Acomb but pulled far too hard behind Gewan and Italy, having been asked to take an early position by William Buick. Last time out, ridden with more restraint, he showed a touch of class. His ability to handle the Dip, combined with the Buick/Appleby record on the Rowley Mile (134 wins from 400 rides, A/E 1.27), suggests he could stamp his authority ahead of a return for the 2000 Guineas in May.
Buick and Appleby can also team up to land the Zetland Stakes with LOOK TO THE STARS 100/30 (13:50 Newmarket). He’s not by one of the usual Godolphin stallions and may be the first son of Galiway to race in the blue in the UK. All his runs have screamed stamina — Galiway is also the sire of Vauban — and this 10f trip should be ideal. He didn’t get off the mark until his third run, but one of those defeats came against Dewhurst contender Oxagon at Sandown. He was very strong at the finish in both wins since then.
The line between top-level handicappers and lower-level Pattern horses has blurred recently. Boiling Point was an example of this in the Cambridgeshire, and now the same connections return with LIBERTY LANE 11/2 (13:15 Newmarket), who achieved a similar feat. He followed that with a second in the Darley Stakes and looks to go one better in this year’s renewal. That day, he was beaten by Lead Artist, who went on to win the Group 1 Lockinge. Liberty Lane is ideally suited to the unique straight 9f of Newmarket. The main concern will be if the ground is too quick, but he’s uncomplicated in terms of run style. Damysus still has questions to answer, particularly his ability to handle the Dip after looking all at sea at Epsom in the Derby.
The big handicap of the day is the Cesarewitch, though a field of 21 is smaller than usual. The Irish have dominated this race in recent years, and several familiar names return, including The Shunter and last year’s controversial winner Alphonse Le Grande. However, another leading Irish contender is REVEREND HUBERT 11/2 (15:40 Newmarket), who ran away with the Trial here last month. A wide-margin prep win isn’t typical of Charles Byrnes, but it looked like Reverend Hubert needed a weight hike to secure his place in the field. He’s shown improved form over hurdles since his previous Flat efforts and could still be well treated. Beylerbeyi heads the domestic challenge, with recent strong finishes suggesting this extreme trip will suit. Ian Williams does well in these types of races, but there’s a suspicion Beylerbeyi needs to be kidded into running past softened-up rivals—something he may not get away with here.
Over at York, the Cambridgeshire form could be key to the 10f handicap, where ERZINDJAN 5/2 (14:05 York) can gain compensation for being drawn on the wrong side at Newmarket. He was clearly best of those drawn high—finishing 4½ lengths clear of the rest of the 11 who raced stands side—but when he broke cover, those on the far side had already gone beyond recall. Erzindjan has done well in three runs since joining T.J. Kent, including a fourth over course and distance in the John Smith’s Cup. There’s little doubt he’d be shorter in the market if trained by a more high-profile name, but that would be unfair to a trainer with a strong career record (52 wins from 422 runners, A/E 1.21), who simply lacks the firepower to compete regularly at this level.
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