The horse racing broadcaster runs through the card for the first Classic of the season and picks out his 1-2-3-4.
The 15:35 at Newmarket on Saturday sees the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. It is a competitive rather than vintage renewal, with a couple of high-profile absences from the Aidan O’Brien camp.
Here is a runner-by-runner guide.
BENEVENTO / A first Guineas runner for Raphael Freire, but was behind both Field of Gold and Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Craven and looks to be flying too high here. *
EXPANDED / The higher-profile defections of The Lion In Winter and more recently Twain have left him as the sole Aidan O’Brien representative. This gives the Dewhurst runner-up the assistance of Ryan Moore, and on his third career start he has the potential of making further improvement, but it would be needed to win here. A place looks a more realistic outcome. ****
FIELD OF GOLD / Bidding to give John Gosden his first 2000 Guineas success and has catapulted himself to the front of the market with his impressive Craven victory. For a big horse, he handled Newmarket well and has a big chance to go one better than his sire Kingman, who came closest to winning the race for Gosden when second to Night of Thunder in 2014. *****
GREEN IMPACT / Took a big step forward when beating an Aidan O‘Brien Derby hope in Delacroix in a Leopardstown Group 2 in September over 1m on good ground. Jessie Harrington is just 2/58 with her turf runners in April and he looks more of a middle-distance horse later in the season. **
RULING COURT / His easy success in the UAE 2000 Guineas in early March sees William Buick – who has an excellent Rowley Mile record – choose him over Shadow Of Light. The question is what he beat that day, but he has fitness on his side. His best domestic form was when third in the Acomb to The Lion In Winter, and if he were to score here for Godolphin that would rather rub salt in to the Coolmore wounds. ****
SCORTHY CHAMP / Has a Group 1 to his name after winning the National Stakes at the Curragh over 7f from Henri Matisse, with another of today’s runners, Seagulls Eleven, back in third. Proven at the highest level and with the step up to a mile looking likely to suit well, he is a leading player and could represent value at the prices. *****
SEAGULLS ELEVEN / Part-owned by several Brighton footballers, his career has rather echoed the team’s fortunes, creditable given connections do not have the budgets of the big clubs but destined more for a crack at the Europa than the Champions League. ***
SHADOW OF LIGHT / After his gritty success from Expanded in the Dewhurst, he was widely expected to be Godolphin’s leading candidate after initially being felt to be more of a Commonwealth Cup (6f) horse. His preparation has not appeared straightforward, though, with a lack lustre racecourse gallop, a tongue tie fitted and William Buick choosing Ruling Glory. He does have two Group 1 successes at the track to his name, but they were on a soft surface. The market could be an important guide here, given the question marks that seem to have surfaced this spring. ****
TORNADO ALERT / The third Godolphin runner who takes a massive step up in grade after winning a Newcastle maiden last time. Saaed Bin Suroor has won this twice, but in recent seasons Charlie Appleby seems to have had by far the stronger ammunition and that is clearly the case here as well. *
WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE / Was originally earmarked for a Derby campaign, but turned up in the Craven when an honourable second to Field Of Gold. He won the Royal Lodge at the track last September and was one place ahead of Ruling Court in the Acomb, but it is hard to see him having the gears over a mile on fast ground and this could well be a stepping stone to an Epsom bid. ***
YAH MO BE THERE / Represents the connections of Cockney Rebel, whose horses all carry musical related names, but he was only fifth in the Greenham and looks outclassed here, which is a doggone shame. *
Conclusion:
A smaller-than-usual field and a couple of notable absentees means the bar for success this year may not be that high. A combination of the bigger price coupled with already being successful at the highest level makes SCORTHY CHAMP appeal more over Field Of Gold. The latter was very impressive in the Craven but, in terms of value, rather filled the vacuum of a race whose ante-post market had already undergone a few transformations. Expanded can make the frame for Aidan O’Brien but the impression is that that yard have had this year’s Guineas challenge severely dented through setbacks, most notably to The Lion In Winter.
One final point that should be made is that John Gosden has repeatedly asserted that Field Of Gold’s Craven win was helped by a strong early pace, however that is not borne out on the clock. If anything, the first half of the race was actually quite slowly run and Field Of Gold actually deserves further upgrading for his sweeping challenge launched from the back of the field. This may be a case of the trainer trying to downplay having the favourite for a race he has yet to win.
1. SCORTHY CHAMP
2. FIELD OF GOLD
3. EXPANDED
4. RULING COURT
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