The horse racing broadcaster offers up his selections for every race at the Flat season reaches its conclusion at Ascot.
A fantastic card at Ascot rounds off the Flat season, with better ground than usual helping Champions Day live up to its title. Some fascinating clashes — with scores to be settled — are likely to go a long way in deciding which horse will be crowned the season’s leading performer, as unusually, that accolade is still very much up for grabs.
The card gets underway at 12:55 with the Long Distance Cup, promoted to Group 1 level for the first time. Since the retirement of Kyprios, the mantle of leading stayer has passed seamlessly to TRAWLERMAN 4/9 (12:55 Ascot), and he looks impossible to oppose. The only new kids on the block are Aidan O’Brien’s 3yo pair Saratoga and Stay True (third in the Leger), with the former, along with Al Qareem, almost certain to go forward and try to complicate things for William Buick on Trawlerman. That seems the only scenario that could unsettle the Gold Cup winner, but Buick faced and overcame a similar setup with Al Qareem in the Lonsdale at York, and the class of Ombudsman is likely to tell.
The second race is a new addition — a juvenile contest introduced to the card for the first time. I have mixed views about this race: it lacks Pattern status and feels a bit out of place, with the potential to dilute some of the high-profile juvenile contests run at Newmarket’s Future Champions weekend just a week earlier. If there is to be a juvenile race on this card, perhaps one for unraced 2yos with a bonus attached for those who go on to win or place in the following year’s 2000 or 1000 Guineas would be a better angle — encouraging trainers to unveil potential stars here rather than mopping up AW maidens during the winter. SIREN SUIT 11/2 (13:30 Ascot) appeals as being overpriced — a double-figure quote at the time of writing, but likely to shorten — and comes into the race relatively fresh after a mid-season break. His two early-season runs included a solid third to Middle Park winner Wise Approach over 5f, and he made all to win comfortably at Kempton over 7f. The drop back in trip at this deeper level isn’t a concern, and his enigmatic dam performed well at Ascot, winning a Group 3 as a juvenile and placing in the Jersey at three.
By contrast to the stability of the staying division, the sprinting ranks have been a domestic minefield, with some shock results. A common theme has been the consistent success of overseas raiders — notably Asfoora, Satono Reve, and LAZZAT 7/2 (14:05 Ascot), the latter pair fighting out the sprint of the season in the QEII Jubilee at the Royal meeting. Lazzat has blotted his copybook twice since — once domestically and once at Haydock, where a notable high draw bias worked against him. It will be interesting to see how the Royal Ascot form holds up on this better ground against the likes of last year’s winner Kind of Blue, who looked to be building nicely for a repeat bid but would have preferred softer going, as would Montassib, who should be fitter after his solid finish over 5f on his belated reappearance at Newbury.
The Fillies & Mares Stakes over 1m 4f also features last year’s winner Kalpana, turned out quickly after a torrid trip out wide in the Arc. How horses back up after Longchamp is a key question here, with no fewer than five of the top seven in the market having competed in France a fortnight ago. With the ground not in Estrange’s favour, and given Owen Burrows’ excellent Group race record, Waardah is definitely a player — though again, the ground may be fast enough for her, and Danielle didn’t do much for the form last time out. WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY 17/2 (14:45 Ascot) has middle-distance form lines with several top-class horses this season and will be suited by the return to 12f, as she doesn’t possess an immediate turn of foot. Her second to Minnie Hauk (whom she beat at two) reads particularly well, and a solid pace would be helpful — so Dylan Browne McMonagle may need to be prepared to make the running.
A larger field than usual for the QEII reflects how the division was thrown wide open by FIELD OF GOLD’s 15/8 (15:25 Ascot) blowout at Goodwood in the Sussex Stakes. Up until then, he had been the standout horse of the season, and hopefully he can get his career back on track here. He was so impressive around the bend in the St James’s Palace, and perhaps a busy early campaign just caught up with him at Goodwood. Sean Levey will be desperate to win on Rosallion after a heartbreaking string of near misses — including against often-neglected course specialist Docklands (again available at a double-figure price) in the Queen Anne — along with recent Group 1 winners Fallen Angel and Never So Brave. But my feeling pre-Goodwood was that Field of Gold was just a cut above, and he can put the record straight in a stellar line-up.
That can also be said of the Qipco Champion Stakes, featuring a best-of-three clash between Ombudsman and Delacroix, along with King George winner CALANDAGAN 11/4 (16:05 Ascot) and the returning Economics. Both Godolphin and Coolmore have added what appear to be pacemakers, which could set things up nicely for Calandagan, who seems ideally suited to Ascot. A searing win in the King Edward VII last season and a smart turn of foot to reel in Kalpana — who had got first run in the King George — are testament to his love of the track, and he can complete what would be a memorable fortnight for Francis Graffard and the Aga Khan Studs. As a gelding, Calandagan wasn’t eligible for the Arc, but given the race was still won by a Graffard/Aga representative in Daryz (who stays in training next year), I doubt they’ll be complaining!
The final race of the card is the Balmoral Handicap, run over a mile. Strangely, the key to this race could be a jockey rather than a horse — Jamie Spencer. Spencer often splits opinion with his hold-up tactics, but there’s no doubt he executes them brilliantly on Ascot’s straight course, helped by the decent pace these races are often run at. He has excelled on both Native Warrior and Witch Hunter in the past, and even though retained riders James Doyle and Joe Leavy are more than capable, Spencer’s absence from the saddle could be a negative for both. Instead, he teams up with ARISAIG 12/1 (16:40 Ascot), who has largely been campaigned outside of handicaps and was drawn on the wrong side in the Kensington Palace at the Royal meeting. Hopefully that won’t be the case here, there’ll be a solid gallop, and Spencer can round off the season in trademark style aboard Charlie Johnston’s filly.
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