The horse racing broadcaster has five selections on offer on day four at Goodwood, with his best bet coming in the 15:45 Bentinck Conditions Stakes.
A few clouds of uncertainty hang over day four of Goodwood with – at the time of writing before racing on Thursday – a more unusual amount of uncertainty regarding Friday’s likely ground. Rain is something that has been in short supply and would be very welcome for many tracks, but the forecast for day three is very hit and miss with a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms.
One horse who would relish any rainfall is topweight TASHKHAN / (13:20 Goodwood), who makes his seasonal return in the opening 2m 4f Goodwood Handicap. He has a touch of class about him as his soft ground 2023 Cesarewitch third off a mark of no less than 109 (106 here) showed. While fitness off an absence of over 300 days is a concern, he has actually been in work for most of the season, having been withdrawn from both the Henry II at Sandown due to the ground, and the Queen Alexandra because of a runny nose, although he would almost certainly have also been taken out because of the fast ground. It finally looks as if he can get his conditions here and the rare booking of Tom Marquand for the ride is an interesting one, with Tom having won on his only ride in 2025 for the yard on Kanishka at Newcastle last month.
Opera Ballo will likely be all the rage for the Group 3 Thoroughbred Bonham Stakes for three-year-olds over a mile. He has been campaigned steadily since his defeat in the Craven, picking up a pair of Listed wins and displaying a decent turn of foot on each occasion. He wears a hood and it is likely that Spectacular View will again be used as a pacemaker, as he was on the last of those two wins in the Henry Cecil.
Both those aids are to help him settle, but if there has been a reasonable amount of rain it could be worth chancing SEAGULL’S ELEVEN / (13:55 Goodwood) each-way to reverse the form. A smart horse at two, he rather marked time for a while but built on a better run in the Jersey with that second at Newmarket. He is a big unit by a sire in Galileo Gold who is making a name for himself when there is cut in the ground (24/168, A/E 1.63 on Soft and Heavy). Whether there will be enough rain by race time is in the lap of the gods, but currently at a double figure price he appeals each way.
One of the big handicaps of the week is the Coral Golden Mile, where TRIBAL CHIEF / (14:30 Goodwood) can continue his rise through the ranks for local trainer David Menuisier, who has already been amongst the winners this week. Tribal Chief should be better for a recent run on the All Weather, having progressed steadily through the ranks last season from an opening mark of 61 to today’s 91. However, it may be wrong to presume the handicapper now has him in his grasp.
He will be held up as he breaks slowly, so an honest pace will be essential to his chances, but with many wanting to get positions from wide out gates it hopefully will not be run at a crawl. If it really does bucket down on Thursday then Rhoscolyn will likely be a significant shortener in the market as cut in the ground at Goodwood is right up his street, and even though he ran here on Wednesday he was not given a hard time once held. In some ways he is a bet to nothing, as if the rain does not materialise he likely won’t run.
Twelve months ago, ASFOORA / (15:05 Goodwood) just failed to catch Big Evs in the King Goerge Qatar Stakes, having given him too much rope. The domestic sprinters are not a strong bunch and remain vulnerable to overseas raiders, as shown by Lazzat and Satono Reve at Ascot, where Asfoora failed to retain her King Charles crown when sixth to American Affair. She had arrived over from Australia later this year and ran as if she was just in need of the run, and connections resisted the temptation to run in the July Cup over 6f to line up fresh here. Oisin Murphy will be keen gain revenge over Big Evs’ owners, who are represented by Big Mojo, last season’s course and distance Molecomb winner looking to complete the same remarkable double Big Evs pulled off.
The best bet of day four is saved until the last of the five ITV races, with LIBERTY LANE / (15:45 Goodwood) looking to have race conditions in his favour in the Bentinck Conditions Stakes. Liberty Lane loves a long straight, as shown by his Cambridgeshire win at Newmarket last season on soft and his course and distance Listed victory here in May on good ground. Ascot’s 2f straight would not have played to his strengths, and being versatile ground-wise makes him a far more solid betting proposition. He will take plenty of beating for Karl Burke and Clifford Lee.
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