The horse racing broadcaster offers up his four selections for Saturday before Cheltenham Corner returns with a look at three ante-post Festival markets.
Trials are the order of the day for the next couple of weekends, with Cheltenham providing the warm‑up act to the two‑day Dublin Racing Festival next Saturday and Sunday. How relevant they turn out to be on Saturday may be heavily ground‑dependent, and whether Nicky Henderson is happy to run the likes of Sir Gino, Impose Toi and Act of Innocence if the ground becomes very testing.
From a betting perspective, extremes of ground can represent opportunity, which could be the case with GOWEL ROAD 12/1 (15:35 Cheltenham) in the Cleeve Hurdle. It is not that usual these days for me to get involved with ante‑post markets, but the feeling that he was certain to both line up and handle the ground was too much of a lure. I still feel he has been underestimated, certainly in comparison to Ma Shantou (a big rise in class) and the increasingly tricky‑looking Doddiethegreat.
Gowel Road is a doughty battler who will almost certainly get a soft lead here and, if Sam Twiston‑Davies can plot a path on the ground least trodden, he can outrun his odds. Impose Toi has surprised me with his ability to see out the trip, as it is speed he usually uses to win his races, but if the ground comes up deep I am not certain he will even run. Strong Leader has proved more versatile and straightforward this season, but he has never really looked in love with Cheltenham. It is likely Aintree is his long‑term objective.
The other main trials make less appeal from a betting viewpoint. The triumphant return of Sir Gino has been one of the highlights so far this season and he should see off The New Lion, but given his previous issues, taking such a short price does not appeal. The same is true of Grey Dawning in the Cotswold Chase. He won well at Haydock, but that flat track allowed him to cruise into the race, whereas here he may be forced to get down and dirty — and in the past that has been when the cracks have appeared.
The better bets look to be on the undercard, starting with JAGWAR 7/4 (13:15 Cheltenham), who ran well on his reappearance in a race that developed into a dash. He is not the most fluent over his fences, so softer ground between them helps slow the others down, and with that run under his belt he can take another step forward in the 2m 4f handicap chase. I fully expect him to be in Graded races before too long, such is the power of his engine, and as such he should readily dispense with this opposition.
J’ARRIVE DE L’EST 13/8 (13:50 Cheltenham) was very well backed on his UK debut over the Cross Country fences last month behind Final Orders and is better off at the weights here. I still feel the UK handicapper underestimates the French form of the likes of J’Arrive De L’Est, Iceo Madrik and Placenet, and it was only another wonderful cross‑country ride by Keith Donoghue on Final Orders that thwarted the trio in December. J’Arrive De L’Est will need to rise in the ratings to get into the Cross Country at the Festival, so expect another bold show here. If he can avoid the very wide route he took over the Aintree Canal Turn‑type fence in the closing stages last time, he can reverse the form. He also has plenty of form on heavy ground in his native France.
Finally, at Doncaster, DEEP CAVE 9/2 (14:05 Doncaster) can win the Great Yorkshire Chase. He has made great strides for Christian Williams, who is adept at keeping these staying chasers sweet as they progress up the handicap. A rise of just 2lb for his narrow Ascot win looks lenient and he can land the four‑timer under Jack Tudor.
Cheltenham Corner
With the Festival looming on the horizon, Cheltenham Corner returns to highlight the performances and races, other than those discussed above, which have had — or will have — the most impact on the ante‑post Cheltenham betting markets.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
The Henderson pecking order appears to have become clearer after Old Park Star’s decisive win at Haydock. He is now at the top of the market and, with Act of Innocence (16:10 Cheltenham) on Saturday being upped to 2m 4f, it looks as if the latter will be heading for the Turners. They are both in the same ownership and it is worth pointing out Act of Innocence was taken out at this track in November due to unsuitably soft ground — conditions which may prevail again if it rains as forecast on Friday.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Waters were muddied rather than cleared after the Clarence House last Saturday, with Il Etait Temps’s fall prompting a significant market correction and leaving Marine Nationale at its head, with his trainer voicing his confidence. It appears Jonbon’s victory has been seen by his trainer more as an indication that the Ryanair, rather than the Queen Mother, is his best Festival option. He may step up in trip to the Ascot Chase at Ascot next month to trial that theory. Thistlecrack may also bypass the Festival, as Harry Skelton felt he needs to go right‑handed at this level.
Triumph Hurdle
The clash between Maestro Conti and Minella Yoga (conqueror of Act of Innocence) in the JCB Triumph Trial (12:40 Cheltenham) should go some way towards sorting out the leading domestic juvenile candidate. With the Irish pair Narciso Has and his Fairyhouse conqueror Mange Tout also due to clash at Leopardstown next Saturday, the respective pecking orders in both the UK and Ireland should soon become much clearer.
