The horse racing broadcaster makes his selection for the big race at Del Mar, along with four more from around the UK.
Can City of Troy make himself Coolmore’s most prized asset by winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar this weekend? ‘The best I have ever trained’ is a line trotted out with surprising regularity, reflecting the commercial reality of the here and now, and is often best taken with a large dose of salt. If City of Troy were to achieve the holy grail of a Derby win on Turf and a Breeders’ Cup Classic win on dirt, then the son of Justify would certainly be the hottest commercial property to head to stud for a generation.
So, can City of Troy do it, and turn around a difficult International week for the stable after the withdrawal of Jan Breughel from the Melbourne Cup after failing to pass the stringent vet checks?
From a betting perspective the call is to oppose. There has only been a solitary European Breeders’ Cup Classic winner on dirt – Arcangues in 1993, winning at 133. Raven’s Pass also won the race for John Gosden, but when Santa Anita had a synthetic surface rather than dirt. The issue is the kickback and the ability to get a position early in the race. City of Troy needs to get into a stalking position and even though his American rivals are not a vintage bunch they have all been trained to jump swiftly when the bell rings. Contrast that to Europe, where often to lead is viewed as ‘doing it the hard way’ when in fact it is often the reverse as City of Troy proved in the International at York. He can race in a forward position but, with many unfamiliar names to UK punters in the Classic field, bookmakers will be pricing him up conservatively, mindful of the market support he is likely to attract domestically.
From a punting point of view, that should mean there is value elsewhere and one horse who does look overpriced is last season’s runner-up, DERMA SOTOGAKE 33/1 (21:41 Del Mar). He chased home White Abarrio that day in a race that looks to have more depth than this time around, and also ran well in the Saudi Cup where the overly strong pace set it up for the closers. He is partnered by one of the world’s best jockeys in Christophe Lemaire and hopefully the application of headgear, coupled with his relative freshness, can give a similarly strong showing at a big price here.
ITV4 are showing three races from Del Mar in the evening after 10 races from Wetherby, Ascot and Down Royal in the afternoon as the jumps season continues to ratchet up a gear.
Ascot’s chase course is a lot sharper than many realise and if LEADER IN THE PARK 9/4 (13:30 Ascot) can get into a good rhythm on his chasing debut – he has won a point to point in Ireland – he could take some pegging back. The Nicholls horses are still having the odd reverse and the trip may be the bare necessity for Bhaloo.
BEACON EDGE 12/1 (14:22 Wetherby) seems somewhat overlooked in the market. He ran second in a competitive handicap at Galway and could well have needed the race last week at Cheltenham when fifth in a Pertemps Qualifier. It is interesting that Gordon Elliott backs him up so quickly and there are fitness doubts about several of his rivals, and Kateira disappointed on this card last season. At the time of writing, Beacon Edge is a double-figure price and that looks too big.
Gerri Colombe and Envoi Allen cross swords for the second year running in a mouth-watering clash at Down Royal, but it is the horse who finished third behind them last year, CONFLATED 100/30 (14:58 Wetherby), who appeals as a better betting vehicle in Wetherby’s feature race, the Charlie Hall Chase. He has not won since Christmas 2022 and has developed a nasty habit of ejecting the rider, but has competed regularly at the highest level – placing in a Gold Cup and a Ryanair. Grey Dawning will be bidding to establish himself outside novice company but this will test his stamina far more and Bravemansgame, looking to atone for his costly last fence blunder in the race last year, is from the Nicholls yard which, as mentioned earlier, is just taking a while to fully fire (2/1 October A/E 0.44).
Back at Ascot, TINTINTIN 14/1 (15:15 Ascot) can reverse Swinton form with Tapley on better terms than at Haydock. The very likeable Tapley has been raised 6lb for his successful return to a new career high, while Tintintin ran as if just in need of the race at Wetherby last time and has a 7lb pull for the ½ length Tapley beat him by that day.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
Our regular list of jockeys heading to tracks where they should arrive in a particularly positive frame of mind, given their numbers of winners ridden there compared to market expectations.
Ascot: Charlie Deutsch (19/77, A/E 1.70)
Newmarket (Rowley): Richard Kingscote (33/233, A/E 1.50)
Wetherby: Sean Bowen (14/58, A/E 1.57)
STABLE TRACKER UPDATE
A quiet but not very successful last fortnight with three runners all beaten. Promethean (0, 5/1) boiled over in the preliminaries and never showed. Juventus De Brion (second, evens) found one of the few Paul Nicholls winners, Quebecois, too hot to handle at Chepstow. Albus Anne (third, 5-4) gave away too much ground at the start at Bath on Thursday.
All still have runs left so are retained, and they are joined by CLOUD COVER who is added after getting no run at Southwell recently. He is likely to have plenty of options around 7f this winter.
Additions: Cloud Cover
There are no tracker horses engaged on Friday or Saturday.
A full list if current tracker horses can be found here.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE 2024
Selections: 55/54.74, A/E 1.00
Stable Tracker: 28/29.98, A/E 0.93
Jockeys For Courses: 54/55.84, A/E 0.97
Overall Performance: 137/140.56, A/E 0.97
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