The horse racing broadcaster offers up his six best bets for Saturday's racing at Newcastle, York and Windsor, and reviews two contrasting races from Royal Ascot.
The Pitman’s Derby at Newcastle is the centrepiece of nine races on ITV this weekend, complemented by action from York and the Curragh, and it is back to Ireland that the Northumberland Plate could head courtesy of Tony Martin’s ZANNDABAD 9/1 (15:15 Newcastle). After a quiet spell, the stable have picked up this month (3/15, A/E 2.59) and Zandabad has been pretty lightly raced on the Flat since his placing in the 2024 Chester Cup. A recent run at the Curragh should have put him right for this and he can beat the talented but fragile Golden Rules, who was narrowly denied in this race two seasons ago but has been difficult to train.
A high draw has proved an advantage on the straight course at Newcastle with the near side rail often looking a golden highway, which gives 8/1 SERGEANT WILKO (13:40 Newcastle) a chance of making all in the opener. He raced away from the rail last time at Haydock where he led his group home, and he should get a much better set up this time around from stall 12.
Later on at Newcastle, CITY WALK 10/1 (15:45 Newcastle) should get a nice trail in as he tries 7f for the first time. He has an excellent all-weather record and an absence is never an issue with the Saeed Bin Suroor yard (143/551, A/E 1.19 after an absence of >300 days). They were in great form during Royal Ascot week and City Walk won on his last visit to the track in 20215.
There are three horses who I have called recently who are also worth paying close attention to. PABORUS 11/4 (14:25 York) looked something out of the ordinary when demolishing a field at Southwell last October before justifying favouritism on this return at Thirsk last time. He can have the race set up for him here as he takes up a step in class and has plenty of potential to progress even higher by the end of the season.
TENABILITY 9/4 (14:50 Windsor) lines up for a third career start 15 minutes later. He has finished with running left on both his starts to date, and while he may be seen to even better light in handicaps he really would not have to improve too much to play a hand here. I think he will definitely win races and has the tongue tie applied, which is a positive angle for this yard (33/160, A/E 1.16 with a first-time tongue tie).
Finally, DUTCH FINALE 5/2 (16:00 Windsor) stretched out really well in the closing stages when winning at Lingfield and looked the type to run up a sequence. Alas, for my pocket he ran too freely over an extra furlong last time, but back at 6f and with the Lingfield image still in my mind I won’t be deserting him just yet, back at six furlongs and ridden with more restraint.
ROYAL ASCOT REVIEW
After the excitements of last week, I will be gradually working my way back through the various divisions, starting with the milers and a real contrast between the two Group 1 races run on Day 1, the Queen Anne and the St. James’s Palace.
The Queen Anne in many ways was the most puzzling race of the whole week. A race that was very steadily run resulting in a sprint for home, yet the finish fought out between horses who came from the back of the field, including a 100/1 chance in Cairo. Notable Speech was the only one with some sort of excuse in not getting a clear run, despite tracking two horses in Lead Artist and Dancing Gemini who should have taken him far further into the race than they did.
Rosallion, therefore, did best of the Lockinge four and probably still has the brightest credentials to test Field of Gold in the Sussex Stakes. Docklands’ love of Ascot almost certainly played a part in his display so it is back there later on in the season for the QEII that may give him his best chance of another Group 1. It is worth remembering that Docklands had been beaten at Ascot by Sardinian Warrior in May, who was a late absentee in the Queen Anne. As he is trained by the Gosdens, it is unlikely that he would take on Field of Gold in the Sussex even he recovered in time, but if the latter does step up in trip later on the season he will likely be the one to fill the breach. In the interim, a return to France for the Jacques Le Marois would seem a sensible next step as connections will be keen to get a Group 1 under his belt after his good effort behind Arc favourite Sosie in the D’Ispahan.
By contrast to the crawl in the Queen Anne, the St James’s Palace later on in the afternoon on the Round Course was anything but. Both Coolmore and Juddmonte had pacemakers who duelled from early on. Field of Gold cruised up, and given how hard they had gone to that point, kicked early enough, but such is his class he was in control throughout the closing stages. Henri Matisse could simply not match the grey’s turn of foot and the fact Field Of Gold could sustain his effort so well bodes really well for his ability to see out 10f, which is likely to be first tested at York in the International. It was the performance of the week and sets up a great clash with Rosallion in the Sussex, for which Field of Gold will be a deserved favourite. Kicking on early may mean he had a tougher race than it looked, and Goodwood will be his fifth race of the season. It may well be that the Sussex and the International will be all he is asked to do this campaign, especially if the ground does come up soft in the Autumn.
A couple of stats to highlight the difference in the races:
If you want a back of an envelope way of identifying very slowly run and hence potentially unreliable races, then the Racing Post ratings are an easy way. Subtract the Top Speed figure from the RPR figure and the greater the difference the slower the tempo. The Queen Anne for example comes out as 120-61=59, with St James’s Palace 131-112 = 19. Using the same calculation on Timeform ratings and speed figures gives Queen Anne 120-67=53 and SJP 132-127=5 so a huge differential.
The times of the respective winners final 2f were 22.87 for Docklands and 24.68 for Field of Gold or nearly 11 lengths showing how the two fields arrived at that point with a massive difference in the amount of energy left.
I will be looking at the other divisions, sprinters, middle-distance horses and two-year-olds in the next couple of blogs.
