The horse racing broadcaster offers his selections for this weekend's racing with a look at the Cheltenham ante-post markets.
A busy afternoon of action with nine races on ITV and quite a few interesting horses scattered around across the various venues.
The feature race of the day is the Grade 1 Ascot Chase where PIC D’ORHY / (15:37 Ascot) is taken to repeat last year’s victory over L’Homme Presse who reopposes again. The key deciding factor in selecting Paul Nicholls charge over both his old adversary and Corbetts Cross is that he has no Cheltenham aspirations and so this is likely to be his main target of the season. Last year L’Homme Presse found it all happening a stride too quick and he jumped out to the left from an early stage. Whilst Venetia Williams are going better than this time a year ago it would only be human nature to have half an eye on the Gold Cup in a month’s time. Corbetts Cross looked to be flat out in the King George and the ground won’t be soft enough to give him any respite over this 2m 5f trip. Pic D’Orhy can provide Paul Nicholls with his first Grade 1 victory since this race a year ago.
One yard I have been keeping a close eye on is that of Tom Lacey who have shown that they are emerging from a spell in the doldrums. He has a couple of horses of interest on Saturday starting with HIGHSTAKESPLAYER / (15:00 Ascot) who finished a solid second to Chianti Classico over course and distance earlier in the season. His next two runs occurred during the yard’s malaise and off a 2lb lower mark and a double figure price at the time of writing he looks worth a bet. Tom also saddles SLIDE RULE / (13:03 Wincanton) who made some late progress on the last of his three runs for a mark and it is no surprise that his handicap debut coincides with a rise in trip. He looks to have the potential to be a cut above his rivals here.
In the opener BERTIE B / (13:15 Ascot) is worth another chance after a string of good form figures came to an end at Kelso in a race that did not bring his stamina into play. There is the Saturday angle where horses from small yards often go off over the odds as bookmakers price up tightly on the higher profile jockeys and trainers who may have potential multiple liabilities if their afternoon starts well. Clive Boultbee-Brooks horses have largely been running well and he had a decent priced horse still right in contention at Sandown on Thursday before being hampered and coming down 2 out.
Up at Haydock NEMEAN LION / (14:40 Haydock) steps up to 3m for the first time in the WKD Rendlesham Hurdle. He won the Kingwell over 2m on this day last year but has form over further including an excellent 2nd in the Lanzarote at Kempton over 2m 5f, a race which proved one of the strongest form lines of the season. Usually the mud would be a plus for him but the ground at Haydock looks likely to be better than normal and this can both help him last the trip and potentially outpace Beauport (holds a Grand National entry) and last year’s winner Botox Has who can hit flat spots.
I do however expect a repeat victory in the Grand National Trial from YEAH MAN / (15:15 Haydock). Royale Pagaille staying in the race gives the handicap a lop sided look and keeps quite few leading form chances like Val Dancer and Jubilee Lights out of the weights. Yeah Man ran well last time in the competitive Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park and can continue Gavin Cromwell’s excellent season.
CHELTENHAM CORNER
Arkle Chase
The biggest impact of the week on Cheltenham betting markets was in the Arkle, where it became apparent that the initially small setback that had prevented Sir Gino running in the Game Spirit last week had escalated to something altogether more serious which would rule him out out for the rest of the campaign. This is the 2nd year in a row that the much anticipated Sir Gino v Majborough clash has failed to materialise and here’s hoping that Nicky Henderson’s charge makes a swift and full recovery. Majborough (8/15) is now a very short priced favourite for the Arkle after L’Eau Du Sud (4/1) was less impressive than expected in the Kingmaker at Warwick.
Gold Cup
As mentioned above there are two potential Boodles Gold Cup candidates in action in the Ascot Chase in Corbetts Cross (12/1) and L’Homme Presse (18/1). With Galopin Des Champs (2/5) dominating the division they are probably of more interest from an each way perspective as it is unlikely to be a large field for this year’s renewal.
Champion Hurdle
The Kingwell at Wincanton features both Burdett Road (20/1) and Golden Ace (33/1) who currently hold Champion Hurdle entries. Burdett Road will find the drying ground in his favour but was firmly put in his place by Constitution Hill at Christmas. It is hard to see him shortening too much whatever the outcome whilst how Golden Ace performs should determine her Festival target as she also still holds a Mares hurdle entry as well . She has been dining out on lowering the colours of Brighterdaysahead at the Festival last year but has really fired on her two outings this season. Many are pointing to the drop back to 2m as being a key reason as to why to expect a better run but she made short work of Lucky Place at Taunton last season over 2m 3f and I think she just hasn’t been quite right. Jeremy Scott’s yard are now in much better form so there should be no excuses this time around but I feel the Mares may well be the route she ends up taking with Lossiemouth (4/1) looking a certain Champion Hurdle runner and Brighterdaysahead (2/1) still a possible.
Brown Advisory
The Reynoldstown at Ascot features four Brown Advisory entries amongst its five runners and a rematch between Jingko Blue (20/1) and Lowry’s Bar (33/1) after their clash at Windsor which was decided by the latter’s error at the 3rd last. Jinkgo Blue is currently much the preferred of the two for the Festival but the staying novices is another division dominated by the Irish with Ballyburn (7/4) and my personal preference Dancing City (3/1) setting a high bar. Jingko and Lowry’s are more likely to just be settling their personal rivalry than making many waves on this ante post market.
Grand National
And finally a note that with the Trial taking place at Haydock this weekend and the publishing of the weights this week the Grand National markets are very much up and running. Amongst those running this weekend who figure amongst the potential field are
Beauport (25/1) who runs over hurdles in the Rendlesham (2.40 Haydock ) carrying the colours of 1983 National winner Corbiere.
Threeunderthrufive (66/1) who carries top weight in the 3m Swinley Chase (3.00 Ascot) and seven of the Grand National Trial (3.15 Haydock) field are also entered at Aintree – Royale Pagaille (40/1) , Fontaine Collonges (66/1), Yeah Man (33/1) , Apple Away (50/1) , Famous Bridge (100/1) , Where It All Began (80/1) and Git Maker (80/1). I will be slightly pulling the tail of the latter as the thought of calling that home in front on the big day will keep me awake at night. (It is Git as in Old… !).
L’Homme Presse (33/1) also holds a National entry alongside the Gold Cup one though connections were initially very lukewarm about the chances of him going that route.
It is also worth a reminder that once the National weights are published then there are no penalties for winning races so any good runs by any of the above will see their odds contract far more sharply than any of the Festival bound horses.
