The horse racing broadcaster reveals his best bets for Saturday's action in the UK, including Newmarket's feature race, the Sun Chariot Stakes.
It has been a terrific season for Middleham trainer Karl Burke. For the fifth consecutive year, the yard has saddled over 100 domestic winners, supplemented by three overseas Group 1 victories — twice courtesy of Fallen Angel and once via Venetian Sun’s Prix Morny triumph at Deauville.
Burke is very much the trainer to follow on Saturday, with chances in many of the nine races covered on ITV, starting with BRIGHT THUNDER 11/8 (13:15 Ascot). It will be a frustration to Karl that, despite a string of placed efforts, Bright Thunder has yet to contribute to the season’s tally — the latest when just touched off at Doncaster in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes, having made her effort a little early in a strongly run Atalanta Stakes at Sandown the time before. Lady of Spain delayed her challenge longer, and I expect the form to be reversed this time around, with not much early speed evident here. I would have preferred her to be drawn more centrally to counteract any potential draw bias — which has sometimes favoured high numbers at this meeting — but that wasn’t the case last year, so hopefully it will be the same again. (Take note of any clues from Friday’s racing, as this is written before that day’s action.)
The stable’s BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND 9/5 (13:50 Ascot) will be hoping to go one better in the 5f Rous Stakes after finishing second to Rumstar. She got jarred up earlier in the season in the Palace House behind the same rival and didn’t reappear until scoring at Ayr a fortnight ago. Provided there’s sufficient rain in the preceding 24 hours to allow her to take her chance, she may line up a good deal fresher than some in a division that looks increasingly tired.
Burke also saddles the tough Al Qareem in the Cumberland Lodge at 14:25, but this race will revolve around whether Hamish and/or Tenability (this column’s star of 2025!) line up, so it’s passed over selection-wise. A fair amount of rain may be needed before connections risk Hamish, and if he does run, Tenability may not — though he proved his ground versatility last time and continues to go from strength to strength.
Fear not, though, because the stable may not be finished yet, with NATIVE WARRIOR 3/1 (15:35 Ascot) looking for back-to-back wins over course and distance. Even though the handicapper has raised him 8lb for that success, there aren’t many unexposed horses in the field. As has been shown in recent months, quality has enabled plenty to win these races from towards the top of the handicap. Rahmi was a good example last time out and rates a danger, though he isn’t always the best away from the gates and would need a strong gallop to bring the closers into play.
Burke also has leading chances in two of the races being shown from Newmarket, and it’s only the skinny price in such a big field that prevents me from putting up Half Sovereign in the £150k October Auction Stakes. Bought for just 12,000 Guineas, she completed a four-timer under top weight in a Doncaster nursery, after which this race was identified as the target. With her run style of racing prominently, she should avoid trouble, but the large field increases the chaos factor — and at below 2/1, the price is just too short.
Fallen Angel is looking for a third Group 1 of the season in the day’s feature race, the Sun Chariot Stakes over 1m, but she may find the locally trained CINDERELLA’S DREAM 9/4 (14:40 Newmarket) too hard to handle. Fallen Angel’s victories have come through sheer determination, but she is vulnerable to anything with a turn of foot. Cinderella’s Dream won the Falmouth on the July Course before disappointing in France last time, but she can bounce back on home turf, where the Buick–Appleby combination so often reigns supreme.
Newmarket isn’t the only track staging a valuable two-year-old race, with the ITV cameras paying their annual visit to Redcar for the Two-Year-Old Trophy. ARGENTINE TANGO 11/2 (15:20 Redcar) may well be campaigned only as a two-year-old before heading to the paddocks and has been on the go all season. She has done her owner-breeders proud and gets in off a very low weight here, despite being campaigned exclusively in Group company since her Newmarket Listed win in June. At that level, others have progressed past her, and she also met trouble two starts ago — which may give the impression her form is tailing off. But back at this level, off such a low weight, it would be wrong to discount her — especially for a stable like Tim Easterby’s, which has also had a superb season.
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