The horse racing broadcaster picks out his best bets from around the UK on Saturday, including one in the feature race at Cheltenham.
It’s Paddy Power Gold Cup day at Cheltenham and while he may not win, in many ways the most significant runner in the race is Protektorat, whose presence in a handicap off a mark of 167 gives GINNY’S DESTINY (14:20 Cheltenham) a nice racing weight. These early handicaps are ideal for quality second-season chasers who will likely spend the rest of the campaign in graded company, but have not yet had the opportunity to earn a mark high enough to keep them out of races like this. A sound jumping front runner, he should be able to get into a nice rhythm against a group of talented but much more exposed horses and looks the progressive horse in the field.
I have long been waiting for the very likeable LOOKAWAY (13:45 Aintree) to go chasing as he was an accurate jumping, honest front runner over hurdles – all ideal attributes for a novice over fences. He only won a match at Uttoxeter on his chasing debut, but that hopefully means he has got his eye in and he can turn over likely favourite L’Eau Du Sud. Neil King had a quiet time last season and that may well have contributed to Lookaway going off the boil after finishing second in the Greatwood to Iberico Lord. Hopefully he can have a more fruitful season this time around over the larger obstacles.
Tony Martin has been in the news this week with the reinstatement of the Cesarewitch first past the post Alphonse Le Grande, and his good week can continue with HAMSIYANN (15:30 Cheltenham) in the Intermediate Handicap Hurdle. He finished second to that very same stable companion in the Chester Cup consolation in May and is still unexposed over obstacles. That Flat effort was achieved off a mark of 89, so a mark of 111 over hurdles seems a very favourable differential – a fact that will not have escaped the trainer. Confidence in the market would be a plus.
ITV are also showing two races from the All-Weather Flat card at Newcastle, where PEACE MAN (15:15 Newcastle) is trying to make up for lost time having only returned to action in October after over a year on the sidelines. He caught the eye on his return at Newmarket, where he was ridden with an eye to the future behind stable companion Lead Artist before being beaten on the nod in a Listed race last time out. He is fresher than many in this field and, given connections bothered to bring him back so late in the season, it is likely an All-Weather campaign had always been plotted.
Away from the main action, MASTER OF COMBAT (20:00 Wolverhampton) looks likely to follow up his recent course victory. He has dropped a long way and still looks off a decent mark of 76 with the stable of Kevin Frost really picking up in recent weeks.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
Our weekly list of jockeys in action at tracks where they historically have had a good record in terms of winners ridden compared to their prices. Sean Bowen was the highlight from last weekend with his Aintree treble.
Cheltenham: Nico De Boinville (50/294, A/E 1.33). Nico has outperformed the market by 33 per cent on his rides at Cheltenham during the course of his career, so even though he rides quite a lot of short-priced horses he has still been a profitable angle based on A/E staking. He has just the one ride on Saturday on Quick Draw in the 14:55
Newcastle: Kieran Shoemark (20/98, A/E 1.45). He takes the overnight flight back from Bahrain to take two rides, including a rare ride for Harry Charlton on Charmoula in the 16:18.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE 2024
Actual Winners vs Expected Winners A/E Ratio Par =1.00)
Selections: 57/56.65, A/E 1.01
Jockeys For Courses: 58/58.49, A/E 0.99
Stable Tracker: 29/31.31, A/E 0.93
Overall Performance: 144/146.45, A/E 0.98
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