The horse racing broadcaster offers up his selections for Doncaster, Kempton and Uttoxeter on Saturday, and examines the Flat trainers to follow and avoid.
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It will certainly come as a bit of a shock to me when the gates crash back in the Brocklesby at 13:15 and the two-year-olds scatter across Town Moor, the first of eight Flat races split between the start of the Turf season at Doncaster and the All Weather card at Kempton.
It will provide the first clue of which yards have their horses well forward (see Stats All Folks below) and ready to do themselves justice in the early weeks of the season.
The feature race at Doncaster is the Lincoln, where the progressive and lightly raced THUNDER RUN / (15:35 Doncaster) makes plenty of appeal. This race looked the obvious target after an excellent effort at Ascot in October, where he showed plenty of speed in racing close to a solid pace and got picked off by the closers late on. He did not see a racecourse until June 2024 and so there should be more physical progress during the close season, and as identified below his yard do well with returners off breaks on turf at the early meetings. There is also not an abundance of early pace, so Thunder Run could be in the right place this time from a tactical viewpoint. On the other side of the track, Orne could outrun his odds as he also looks likely to be favoured by a potentially less than frantic pace.
In the Spring Mile, the gelding of PROMETHEAN / (13:50 Doncaster) may help unlock the potential he showed at times last season. He completely lost the plot in the preliminaries on his last start, having looked unlucky over 10f at Doncaster the time before. It may be advisable to wait and see how he goes to post before stepping in, but a straight mile could be right up his street. He is committed to racing on the stands side from gate 22 but with the majority of the speed looking to come up the middle they may all stay together in one group. It is just a third UK ride for apprentice Enzo Crublet, who has a fair amount of experience in France over the last few seasons.
At Kempton, it may be a case of saving the best until last with ARQOOB / (17:35 Kempton), who creeps into this grade off the ceiling mark having given the odds-on favourite a fright over the same course and distance last time. He placed off a higher mark as recently as January at Southwell.
Away from the Flat action, there are a couple of horses at Uttoxeter who have been found good opportunities, starting with REMARKABLE FLIGHT / (14:10 Uttoxeter). She looks to have started life as a jumps handicapper off a lenient mark based on her win at Fakenham off a mark of 84. She won off 59 on the level so a rise of 5lb may not be enough to stop her following up for Jennie Candlish, who has had such a fantastic season.
DON’T TELL ROSIE / (15:20 Uttoxeter) comes from a race at Taunton that has worked out particularly well, with the winner and third both scoring next time. She split the pair in second and runs in the colours of champion hurdle winner Golden Ace. A race she ran in at Christmas, again at Taunton, also worked out very well and her mark of 96 looks very workable
STATS ALL FOLKS
One specific area to focus on this week is to try and identify the stables who have their turf horses fit at the start of the season, and others whose runners usually need the outing and hence can be taken on.
To do this, I have looked at trainers’ horses running at turf tracks in March and April that have been off the track for over 120 days (so since the end of the last turf season). Data is from the last four years and to qualify each trainer must have a positive Actual/Expected Ratio in three of the four years and have over 30 qualifiers to ensure a reasonable sample size.
I have also done the same calculation in reverse to identify three yards who have a poor record with their turf horses in the early months off a greater than 120-day break.
Three to follow:
Charlie Hills (16/56, A/E 2.15): A stand-out performer with his only blip coming last year when 1/15 gave a small negative A/E of 0.95. Previous years had proved very lucrative, especially 2022 with 7/18, A/E 2.46 and 2023 with 3/7, A/E 2.97. The only qualifier on Saturday is Galeron in the Lincoln
Karl Burke (13/77, A/E 1.33): 2024 was the pick with 6/26, A/E 1.91 and he has two candidates running in the Lincoln both fulfilling the criteria in Native Warrior and Thunder Run. Spycatcher (14:25) and Liberty Lane (15:00) are also qualifiers.
William Haggas (22/71, A/E 1.30): The only one of the trio to have had a positive A/E in every single one of the last four seasons. They go off generally shorter prices than the other two, but the market still has underestimated their chances by 30 per cent. Godwinson is another Lincoln qualifier.
Three to avoid
Simon & Ed Crisford (2/35, A/E 0.33): The slight counter to this is the yard is currently going well, but the turf horses in the early months have performed 67 per cent below market expectations and the last winner was as far back as 2021. The last 31 have all been beaten. There are no qualifiers running on Saturday as Magnus Opus has run at Meydan within the 120 days.
Tim Easterby (8/227, A/E 0.55): They tend to go off at big prices but a strike rate of below 4 per cent tells its own story. Tim is in no hurry at the beginning of the season and has underperformed on each of the last four seasons under these criteria, including a staggering 0/58 in 2023. There are no qualifiers on Saturday but keep an eye out over the next few weeks, especially at the Yorkshire tracks.
Andrew Balding (11/111, A/E 0.60): Nearly half these winners occurred in a positive 2021 with 5/25, A/E 1.58, but it has been downhill in the last three years with 6/86, A/E 0.40. The Cursor (16:10 Doncaster) will be the first to reappear this season.
At the end of April I will revisit this to see how the stables have fared and whether following this system would yield profits this time around as well.
