The horse racing broadcaster picks out his selections for the final Saturday of racing before Christmas, including two from a good card at Ascot.
A very Happy Christmas, and before the Boxing Day treats there is action in front of the ITV cameras from Ascot and Haydock on Saturday.
The feature race is the Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle, where BLUEKING D’OROUX (14:25 Ascot) looks overpriced. This is a very open division outside Teahupoo, and favourite Strong Leader was found a good opportunity at Newbury where pressure was never really put on his jumping. He has his own way of getting from A to B and often looks clumsy. Blueking D’Oroux beat him here last season before finishing fifth behind Crambo in last year’s Long Walk, where he didn’t seem to see out the trip. That remains the main question mark, but he will be better fitness-wise for his return and is a year older.
Venetia Williams has had major successes in each of the last three weekends and it could be VICTTORINO’s (15:00 Ascot) turn to extend the sequence. A winner twice here last season, he made significant late ground in the Gold Cup at Newbury after getting well behind early on. The smaller field should allow him a little more time at his fences as he can make errors but is still treated well enough off the same mark as Newbury.
Away from Ascot, FAMOUS BRIDGE (14:05 Haydock) can repeat last year’s win in the Tommy Whittle. He developed into a consistent staying handicapper last season and is unbeaten in two completed starts at Haydock (he uncharacteristically unseated here in February). Nicky Richards has had an excellent last three months and deep ground would be no issue. He is only 2lb higher than last year and his main danger could well be the horse that finished third that day, Credo, who does have quite a pull at the weights but was well beaten here last month.
One final horse to keep an eye in is HUSH PUPPY (16:20 Newcastle) who was sent off favourite on his debut at Lingfield but could only finish fifth. He seemed to lack knowhow once in the short straight, and the longer straight 7f here should give himself much more time to get organised. His trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam has had three winners in the last seven racing days.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
Here are the jockeys at tracks where they have historically done well in terms of the number of winners ridden compared to market expectations.
Keep a list, as these are sufficiently strong records that they will apply whenever they ride at these venues for at least the medium term.
Ascot – Charlie Deutsch (22/82, A/E 1.85). Two rides, the pick of which is likely to be Victtorino (15:00) in the Howden Silver Cup.
Hereford – Richard Patrick (19/91, A/E 1.42). Four of his five rides are for Kerry Lee, who ended a losing sequence last week and include the classy Nemean Lion (14:13)
Wolverhampton – Rossa Ryan (156/789, A/E 1.23). A full book, as you would expect for the Dunstall Park money maker. This has been one of the strongest JFC angles of recent seasons.
STABLE TRACKER UPDATE
Three runners this week with a win for Ormolulu at 13/2 and two unplaced runners in Eye of The Water (12/1) and Helm Rock (11/2).
Ormolulu overcame considerable trouble to win and will still be competitive off higher, but is removed having won.
Eye of The Water had been off for six weeks and ran as if the race was needed, leading until weakening inside the last. He has two more runs left.
Helm Rock was disappointing but can find less competitive openings especially at Southwell in the weeks to come. He also has two runs left.
There are no additions.
Removed: Ormolulu
A full list of stable tracker horses can be found here.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE 2024 (Actual Winners / Expected Winners A/E Ratio 1.00 = Par)
Selections: 63/ 61.97, A/E 1.02
Jockeys For Courses: 62/63.21, A/E 0.98
Stable Tracker: 30/32.09, A/E 0.93
Total Performance: 155/157.27, A/E 0.99
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