Cheltenham Festival favourites have won 29 per cent of races since 2000, with the opening day the best time to back a short-priced winner and the final day being the worst
There is nothing like a winner at the Cheltenham Festival.
The rush of adrenaline as a horse makes it over the last fence, the wait as they make it up the hill and the legendary Cheltenham Roar as they make it past the winning post all reinforce the idea that it is the greatest show on turf.
But with that comes the age-old debate: should you back a favourite or go for an outsider?
With the countdown to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival beginning in earnest in November, our research has revealed that since the turn of the century 29.2% of races at The Festival have been won by starting-price Cheltenham betting favourites.
Since the 2000 Cheltenham Festival, there have been a total of 644 races across each of the 25 festivals. From those races, there have been 188 horses to win their races having started as the favourite or joint-favourite. That equates to an average of one winning favourite every 3.43 races
Over the course of the last 25 festivals, there have been 95 days of racing, equating to an average of 1.98 winning favourites per day at Cheltenham. Broadening the scope further, there has been an average of 7.52 winning favourites per festival since 2000.
When do favourites win at Cheltenham Festival?
Since 2000, the best day of Cheltenham Festival for winning favourites was the opening day of 2023 in which five out of seven races were won by the horse with the shortest price.
The best year was 2022, in which there were 12 winning favourites out of 28 races – a win rate of 42.9%. Elsewhere, the 2003 Cheltenham Festival had the highest proportion of winning favourites, with 11 winning favourites from just 20 races – equating to a 55% win ratio.
The opening day of Cheltenham is also the best time to back a favourite, with 37% of races won by starting-price favourites. There have been 164 races on the opening day of Cheltenham over the course of the last 25 festivals, with 61 favourites winning – equating to 2.44 favourites per day.
The best race to back a favourite within that period of time has been the Champion Hurdle, with 52% of races being won by the shortest-price horses. Of the 25 editions of the Champion Hurdle since 2000, 13 favourites have won.
The longest consecutive streak of favourites winning their races at Cheltenham Festival, meanwhile, came during 2019. Between the Champion Chase, won by Altior, and the Pertemps Final, won by Sire Du Berlais, the following day, all six races were won by favourites.
When should you avoid backing the favourite at Cheltenham?
Since the 2000 Cheltenham Festival, there have been 13 days out of 95 in which zero favourites have won a race, equating to 13.7% of all festival days.
Within that timeframe, the worst day of the festival for backing favourites has been Friday, with five of the last 25 festival Fridays having had zero winning favourites.
In terms of specific races that pose the biggest headache for punters, the Coral Cup has the worst success rate for favourites. In the last 25 editions of the race, favourites have won just twice – giving a success rate of just 8%.
The longest run of losing favourites within the same festival came in 2008, when there were 13 consecutive races won by other horses. The 2008 Cheltenham Festival was also one of the most unlucky, with favourites finishing second in 32% (eight out of 25) of races.
But the most unlucky Cheltenham since 2000 was the 2004 festival, in which favourites finished second in 35% (seven out of 20) of races.
Does the November Cheltenham meeting matter?
For those with one eye on the results of the November meeting at Cheltenham in the hope that it will inform their betting when it comes to the real thing, the correlation between winners is not especially strong.
The last Cheltenham Festival winner who also won at Prestbury Park’s November meeting was The Real Whacker, who won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase in 2023.
Of the 644 races at Cheltenham since 2000, 15 have been won by horses that had won at the November meeting immediately prior – equating to just 2.3%.
Ignoring November winners and just looking at horses that had run at the meeting, there have been 69 Cheltenham Festival winners to have competed at the previous November meeting – 10.7%.
