Discover important trends and stats for Cheltenham Day 4 to help you make the best betting strategies. Make sure to remember them to improve your chances of a winning bet!
Being the fourth and final day of Cheltenham Festival, Gold Cup Day always delivers elite racing and keeps you on the edge of your seat with top-class races on show. It is the absolute best way to round off the festival, containing highly competitive fixtures and an incredible atmosphere.
When looking back on prior editions of Cheltenham day four though, what can we discover? Over the years, certain patterns and trends have formed that you would benefit from being aware of!
Whether you are a seasoned bettor or a newcomer, keep some of these in mind when you begin placing your wagers as they could be more useful than you think. So, to get you started we have compiled a list of stats and Cheltenham day 4 trends over the last decade for you to keep in mind.
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 trends by race
Day four at Cheltenham has much to offer to its 60,000 spectators; to give you an overview, we have broken down stats and trends for individual races to allow you to see how the final day at has occurred in years gone by. Read on below to find out more!
Triumph Hurdle (13:20)
To kickstart Cheltenham day four, we have the JCB Triumph Hurdle, where the previous ten winners have entered the race with average odds of 15.89/1 – though the last winner, Poniros, distorts this figure massively due to winning last year as an extremely long pick.
The most recent decade has seen the favourite win this meeting 40% of the time, suggesting that outside bets have a reasonable chance of being successful here.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 4 (2023, 2022, 2017, 2016)
The odds of the last ten winners: 100/1 (Poniros, 2025), 6/1 (Majborough, 2024), 11/8 (Lossiemouth, 2023), 6/4 (Vauban, 2022), 2/1 (Quilixios, 2021), 12/1 (Burning Victory, 2020), 20/1 (Pentland Hills, 2019), 9/1 (Farclas, 2018), 5/2 (Defi du Seuil, 2017), 9/2 (Ivanovich Gorbatov, 2016).
County Hurdle (14:00)
The second race of the day is the County Handicap Hurdle Race, seeing horses compete in the one of the fiercest clashes of the week. The last decade has seen average starting odds for the winners sit at 16.23/1, suggesting that horses considered to be slight outsiders have good chances of victory too.
With favourites having a 30%-win rate over the previous ten years, competition proves to be high, and results appear to be unpredictable.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 3 (2025, 2022, 2020)
The odds of the last ten winners: 3/1 (Kargese, 2025), 12/1 (Absurde, 2024), 33/1 (Faivoir, 2023), 11/4 (State Man, 2022), 33/1 (Belfast Banter, 2021), 11/2 (Saint Roi, 2020), 12/1 (Ch’tibello, 2019), 33/1 (Mohaayed, 2018), 20/1 (Arctic Fire, 2017), 8/1 (Super Story, 2016).
Mares’ Chase (14:40)
One of the newer races to the Cheltenham schedule, the Mares’ Steeple Chase is up next. Having only been run since 2021, we will look at the average odds entering the race for the previous five winners. This number stands at 2.18/1 and suggests that longshots may find themselves struggling here.
Despite the average odds being low, the win rate for the outright favourites is only one-in-five; though with only five years to sample this data from, a different trend could still form.
How many times the favourite has won since 2021: 1 (2025)
The odds of the last five winners: 6/4 (Dinoblue, 2025), 3/1 (Limerick Lace, 2024), 15/8 (Impervious, 2023), 9/4 (Elimay, 2022), 9/4 (Colreevy, 2021).
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (15:20)
The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race comes next and is the longest novice hurdle run at Cheltenham. When looking at the last decade, the average odds for winners when entering a race was 20.4/1, which indicates that it doesn’t frequently go the way of the horses at the higher end of the market.
Following this trend, the favourites have seemed to really struggle here as they haven’t won once in the last decade!
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 0
The odds of the last ten winners: 6/1 (Jasmine De Vaux, 2025), 33/1 (Stellar Story, 2024), 18/1 (Stay Far Away, 2023), 18/1 (The Nice Guy, 2022), 14/1 (Vanillier, 2021), 5/1 (Monkfish, 2020), 50/1 (Minella Indo, 2019), 33/1 (Kilbricken Storm, 2018), 16/1 (Penhill, 2017), 11/1 (Unowhatimeanharry, 2016).
Cheltenham Gold Cup (16:00)
Then comes the main event of Cheltenham day four, and the entire Festival: the Gold Cup. The previous 10 winners have entered the race with average odds of 5.14/1, indicating that underdogs won’t find lots of joy here.
Regarding the win rate of outright favourites, they have seen victory in 50% of races over the last ten years – though this does include four of the last six iterations – which indicates this event has a balanced competition.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 5 (2024, 2023, 2022, 2020, 2016)
The odds of the last ten winners: 15/2 (Inothewayurthinkin, 2025), 10/11 (Galopin Des Champs, 2024), 7/5 (Galopin Des Champs, 2023), 3/1 (A Plus Tard, 2022), 9/1 (Minella Indo, 2021), 10/3 (Al Boum Photo, 2020), 12/1 (Al Boum Photo, 2019), 5/1 (Native River, 2018), 7/1 (Sizing John, 2017), 9/4 (Don Cossack, 2016).
Hunters Chase (16:40)
After the Gold Cup, the St James’s Place Festival Hunters Chase takes place for amateur riders over the same course. The last ten winners entered the race with average odds of 23.18/1; though wins from Premier Magic (2023) and It Came to Pass (2020) slightly skew this after winning with unfavourable odds.
The favourites’ win rate here in the last ten years stands at 30%, seemingly showing that value could be found in the outliers.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 3 (2022, 2019, 2016)
The odds of the last ten winners: 28/1 (Wonderwall, 2025), 8/1 (Sine Nomine, 2024), 66/1 (Premier Magic, 2023), 13/8 (Billaway, 2022), 16/1 (Porlock Bay, 2021), 66/1 (It Came to Pass, 2020), 7/2 (Hazel Hill, 2019), 25/1 (Pacha Du Polder, 2018), 16/1 (Pacha Du Polder, 2017), 13/8 (On The Fringe, 2016).
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (17:20)
Finally, to conclude the entire festival, we have the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle, which is the best occasion to showcase young, talented jockeys and horses. The average starting odds of the previous ten winners here are 10.25/1, seemingly showing that there is a reasonable chance for upsets.
The theme continues with favourites not winning once in the previous decade, indicating that they don’t fare well despite their promising odds.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 0
The odds of the last ten winners: 9/2 (Wodhooh, 2025), 5/1 (Better Days Ahead, 2024), 6/1 (Iroko, 2023), 12/1(Banbridge, 2022), 8/1 (Galopin Des Champs, 2021), 25/1 (Indefatigable, 2020), 5/1 (Early Doors, 2019), 11/1 (Blow By Blow, 2018), 12/1 (Champagne Classic, 2017), 14/1 (Ibis Di Rheu, 2016).
Why is it important to consider Cheltenham day 4 trends?
It’s useful to consider Cheltenham day four trends when formulating your betting strategies for the next edition of the festival.
Much like in other sports, stats and trends, such as past form, can be good indicators of how horses and jockeys could run next time out. A horse being assigned favourable odds alone doesn’t guarantee good results, after all!
To have a look at more tips on how best to set up for the Festival, have a read of our Cheltenham blog so you can see more guides like this one!
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