The horse racing broadcaster offers his latest thoughts on the Cheltenham Festival betting markets, including the Mares' Hurdle and the Arkle Chase.
How times change. I don’t think I have ever attended a single day’s racing that provided more Festival success than on this day at Kempton in 1994, perched in my old vantage spot in the derelict stand by the 3rd last amongst the stock of hurdles and replacement birch.
The opening race was the Rendlesham (now run elsewhere), won by Balasani, who would win the Stayers the following month. Next up was the Dovecote, where few would have paid too much attention to third-placed Arctic Kinsman. They should have, though, as he would land the Supreme at 50/1 for Nigel Twiston-Davies on his next outing.
A good start, but things would get even better with Mysilv winning the Adonis en route to a Triumph win, Monsieur Le Cure winning the Pendil before his RSA (now Brown Advisory) victory and Antonin winning the Racing Post Chase and the then Ritz Club (now Ultima). In third behind Antonin was The Fellow, who win the Gold Cup that March, and just for good measure Master Oats won the staying handicap towards the end of the card 13 months before his Gold Cup win, and subsequent Grand National winner Rough Quest came down at the last in Antonin’s race. What a star-studded collection.
Fast forward 30 years and you will struggle to find too many Festival clues, but here are a few Cheltenham betting markets – plus the Grand National – that have either moved in the last week or could be impacted by events over the weekend.
Latest Cheltenham Festival betting tips
TRIUMPH HURDLE
The absence of Lulamba 15/8 and Palladium removes two of the key players in the juvenile division from staking their claims at Kempton. Perhaps unnerved by Sir Gino, Nicky Henderson has chosen not to run either despite both only having had one start over hurdles. This seems more of a negative for Palladium then Lulamb as he had looked to need the experience over obstacles more, but perhaps Henderson was reminded of his victory in the Triumph Hurdle with Pentland Hills, who had only run once beforehand when winning at 20/1 in 2019.
This means it is Mondo Man who will be under the spotlight in the Adonis, where the key point will be how well he can settle. He achieved a really good level of form on the level, including a fifth in the French Derby but, having been sold for €520,000, connections immediately made their intentions plain by gelding him. He ran too keenly behind Lulamba at Ascot and this track should play more to his strengths, though whether Cheltenham would is a different matter.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
There are several in the Dovecote who hold entries in the Supreme, but they are currently more in the Arctic Kinsman price range than anything shorter. Course winner Miami Magic 33/1 is the most likely to stake his claim after finishing runner-up in the Grade 1 Formby at Aintree on Boxing Day, two places ahead of Celtic Dino 40/1 , who reopposes from a yard that is going well. Once again, though, with Miami Magic the suspicion is that even if successful he is more likely to head back to Aintree rather than the Festival.
William Munny 10000/1000 also scored in impressive fashion at Punchestown for owner and trainer Barry Connell, and as a result he and the horse that beat him at Fairyhouse, Kawaboomga 10/1 , have both shortened up considerably in the market for the Supreme.
ARKLE CHASE
After his rather scrambled Warwick win, L’Eau Du Sud 4000/1000 sees that form represented by Rubaud in the Pendil, but if it rains he would be a query at 2m 4f. He may be worth opposing on the day with the progressive Imperial Saint, who would relish the rain, but neither hold Festival engagements.
With most of the trials now done for the Championship races, my attention will now begin to focus on the handicaps. The entries are out but not yet the weights, so more on that in future weeks. It is worth pointing out that the last Pertemps qualifier is run at Chepstow on Saturday and last year the final qualifying spot went to the fourth-placed Monmiral, who would go on and win the final at 25-1. The Arctic Kinsmans still exist!
MARES’ HURDLE
A few results and races in Ireland this week have also impacted markets, most notably Jade De Grugy 2500/1000 , whose victory at Punchestown on Thursday in the aptly named Quevaga Hurdle saw her cut considerably in a race where running plans are still very much up in the air. She runs in the Honeysuckle colours and seems pretty certain to be in the line-up, which still is far from the case with several towards the front of the market.
I also still expect this to be where Golden Ace 7000/1000 runs after her win in the Kingwell. I still hold the belief that it was not the trip that was beating her earlier this season but just that she hadn’t yet come to hand, and certainly her defeat of Burdett Road looked more as a result of outstaying rather than outspeeding him.
MARES’ CHASE
Bioluminescence 3000/1000 is the headline act here when she lines up in the Listed Colreevy Mares Chase (16:35 Fairyhouse) on Saturday. She was a big mover after an excellent second to Dancing City last time and a win here could see her pressing another JP McManus horse, Dinoblue, for favouritism. Spindleberry 12000/1000 and Judiceuse Allen 33000/1000 also hold Mares Chase entries among the line-up.
SUPER BOOST: Bioluminescence to win (16:35 Fairyhouse) – Was 10/11, Now 7/4
GRAND NATIONAL
Finally away from Cheltenham, the Bobbyjo Chase on the same Fairyhouse card sees several leading Irish-trained Grand National contenders in the field. A reminder that once the weights are out there are no penalties for winning, so it would be no surprise if there was a far less lethargic effort from last year’s winner of the race, I Am Maximus 11000/1000 .
Also lining up is last season’s Irish Grand National winner Intense Raffles 14000/1000 and the horse that finished third behind him that day, Minella Cocooner 20000/1000 , who went on to win the Bet365 Gold Cup to cement Willie Mullins UK trainers crown on the last day of the season at Sandown. Third behind him that day was Nick Rockett 16/1 , who won the Thyestes last time. A win for any of these could see them move to the top of the Grand National market and it is a reflection of the balance of power in the staying chase division that one of the old-style Aintree trials, Newcastle’s Eider Chase on Saturday, will likely have no impact on the market as the winner will not be rated high enough to get a run.
