How to pick a horse for the Grand National

From lucky numbers to the most successful silks, our infographic reveals all you need to know when trying to choose a winner in the nation's favourite race.

The Grand National is among the nation’s favourite horse race, with over 15 million Brits betting on the event every single year. But, with the race almost impossible to predict, how do people choose their horses.

How to pick a Grand National winner

Let’s get the obvious out of the way – there’s no secret formula or best way to bet on the Grand National, it’s really a combination of knowledge, skills, and luck.

That being said, if you’re after some ‘strategies’, we’ve got a few that could help you narrow down your horse choices.

Strategy 1: Choosing based on the name

Why not just go with your gut instinct and go for a horse based purely on the name? Absolutely zero logic or knowledge needed; simply pick the name that stands out the most to you.

Given that there’s not necessarily a best way to bet on the Grand National, this can be a fun and easy way to decide on a pick. And you never know, there’s always the chance they could go on to win!

Strategy 2: Using insights

For a strategic approach to picking a horse to bet on at the Grand National, there are various insights you can look at to help guide your decision. This could include:

• Recent results and the form a horse is in.

• The types of races a horse has previously run.

• The horse weight for the Grand National.

• A horse’s age and experience.

Whilst this is a knowledge-based and data-driven tactic, it’s important to remember that horse racing is an unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on the day.  

Strategy 3: Going for the favourite

Perhaps the most obvious strategy is to go with the bookies’ favourite – after all, they’ll need to have their own ideas on the likelihood of a horse winning to be able to set relevant betting odds. You just need to follow their lead, meaning less effort and research required on your part.

It’s worth noting that the odds for favourites are usually lower, so be mindful that any potential winnings won’t be as large as ‘less popular’ or non-favourite horses.

Another point to consider is that the favourite isn’t necessarily a safe bet due to the nature of horse racing. This is something we’ll be delving into further below as we explore how many recent favourites have actually gone on to win the Grand National…

How often does the favourite win the Grand National?

So, how do the betting favourites match up with actual Grand National success? We’ve taken a look at Grand National winners since 2010 and whether they were the frontrunners or a surprise winner.

Taking a look at the above, in the last 14 Grand National races between 2010 and 2024, just four have been won by the original favourite. Of these four winning favourites, though, it’s worth recognising that three of them have been from the five last races (2024, 2023, 2019)!

Other Grand National betting strategies

As we’ve already discussed, there’s no sure-fire way to secure a win when betting on the Grand National, but below are some other things that you might want to consider before placing your bet:

• Consider each way terms: Placing an each way bet means your chosen horse doesn’t necessarily need to win the race for your bet to be successful; in this case, your horse placing in a qualifying position will be enough to recoup some winnings, giving yourself more opportunity and security.  

• Check winners of Cheltenham: As one of the other major horse racing events, the winners of long-distance races at Cheltenham are often seen as the favourites heading into the Grand National. This is because winning at Cheltenham indicates that a horse has good stamina and is able to perform at high-pressure events.

• Look into the jockey and trainer: It’s not just the horse itself that factors into potential success at the Grand National, but the trainer and jockey too. Both of these people play a huge role in ensuring the horse is race-ready and performs to its best ability, so it’s worth looking at their past experience and track record, particularly in similar events, as well as their relationship with the horse.

For a full view of the latest Grand National betting odds, be sure to visit our horse racing betting page. Ahead of the main horse racing event of the year, you may also want to check out our other horse racing blogs, including how to bet on the Grand National and a deep dive into the history of female jockeys in the Grand National.