In our exclusive interview, the Formula 1 analyst previews the upcoming F1 season and discusses Lando Norris' chances of winning back-to-back World Drivers' Championship.
F1 analyst Mark Gallagher believes Fernando Alonso’s comments about Aston Martin being on the “back foot” to start the season suggest the team led by Adrian Newey are in for a difficult year under the new regulations.
In our exclusive interview, Gallagher also previews the season ahead, discussing which teams are the front-runners and whether Lando Norris can win his second consecutive world title.
With Max Verstappen currently behind only George Russell in the F1 betting, Gallagher says he has also been impressed by Red Bull’s performance in pre-season testing despite the departures of Newey and former team principal Christian Horner.
What have you made of pre-season testing so far?
I think pre-season testing is always difficult to decipher, but there are a few standout points. First of all, I think everyone was shocked to find how reliable the teams and cars were, even with the new powertrains, although that probably shouldn’t be a surprise.
Formula 1 has changed enormously over the last 10 to 15 years, and the teams are now so sophisticated with the engineering tools available to them.
One of the things a lot of people were predicting was that Red Bull Powertrains would really struggle. Of course, they haven’t. If you take a step back, you’d have to say that everybody in Formula 1 is doing an incredible job.
Red Bull Powertrains, although often linked with Christian Horner and Adrian Newey, is a huge company with an enormous amount of money spent on it, employing really top people. The result is that the Red Bull power unit looks a lot better than many people expected.
I would say that a lot of Formula 1 media expected Red Bull to be in trouble, but they haven’t been. The engine is producing decent power, and they’ve had some very good straight-line speed. The point I’m making is that really everybody has done a good job getting all the cars out reliably.
When you look at the number of laps the top teams are doing, they’re racking up really strong mileage. So, it doesn’t look like anybody is in bad shape.
There’s nobody who looks completely off the pace at this stage. In terms of outright performance, the top teams look pretty impressive. We won’t really know the true picture until Melbourne.
Perhaps stereotypically, Red Bull seems able to pull together very quick laps, albeit slightly less so over longer runs. Overall, the competitive order looks similar to what it was last year — McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes likely to be the teams fighting over the top places on the grid and in the races.
Can Lando Norris win successive world titles?
I think winning the World Championship has a huge impact on people from so many different perspectives. It takes a weight off his shoulders. He’s now in a different phase of his career.
The question is whether he suffers the fate of someone like Jenson Button — winning a single championship and not repeating it — or whether he finds a way to secure back-to-back championship titles.
He has all the tools, if we’re honest. One of the remaining unanswered questions about last year was the extent of Oscar Piastri’s slump at a critical point in the season. We’ve heard the stories and interviews about certain car developments, perhaps suiting Lando a bit more than Oscar.
I’m also of the opinion that McLaren, as a team, ultimately leaned towards Lando in their championship push. By the final part of the season, the focus was clearly on him.
Lando was performing extremely well, delivering some incredible qualifying laps. So, was it Oscar’s slump combined with Lando’s step up in performance that ultimately defined the order within the team?
The big question this year is what happens with the order inside McLaren. Does Lando’s status as reigning champion protect his position, or does he find himself under threat from Oscar, who will be desperate to prove himself? Starting the season with the Australian Grand Prix must be hugely motivating for Piastri.
It will be really interesting to see how that dynamic develops now that Lando is the reigning champion and Oscar has a point to prove. I would imagine we may see a little bit of strain if the so-called ‘papaya rules’ are tested.
Adrian Newey is now at the helm as Aston Martin team principal. Fernando Alonso has said they may be on the back foot for the first half of the season. How do you see things unfolding?
If you admit you’re on the back foot at the start of the season, the risk is that by the time you catch up, everybody else has moved on again. Development in Formula 1 is relentless, and if you’re not there from the beginning, it can take years to recover, not months.
There are several warning signs from the past. Aston Martin, in previous guises, have sometimes taken a conservative approach to regulation changes.
If they take a conservative approach again, while teams like Mercedes and Red Bull extract the absolute maximum — even taking calculated risks — then they could fall behind.
There’s also the cultural aspect. When Newey was at Red Bull, he was given the freedom to produce complex, innovative designs. Now, with Aston Martin, there’s enormous expectation because arguably the greatest technical brain in Formula 1 history is effectively leading the team. That brings huge pressure.
If the car isn’t quick, the question will be whether that’s down to the design, the power unit, or a combination of both. And if Alonso is already suggesting they may not be fully ready until mid-season, there must be some concern internally.
Leadership structure is also important. Having a technical genius in a principal role changes the dynamic of a team. You need strong relationships and clarity in responsibility. If there’s tension or uncertainty, that can filter through the organisation.
When you put all of those factors together — structural changes, high expectations, technical questions and early-season concerns — it could prove to be quite a difficult year for Aston Martin.
