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Premier League tips: Best bets for Liverpool v Newcastle

30 Dec | BY Adrian Mills | MIN READ TIME |
Premier League tips: Best bets for Liverpool v Newcastle

Adrian Mills' tips for the Magpies' trip to Anfield include a comfortable win for the hosts with a striker getting on the scoresheet.

Newcastle woes to continue

Newcastle kick-off 2024 in the Premier League with a lengthy injury list, which contributed to their 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.

The Magpies have had very little room for rotation throughout a busy December, which has led to their form taking a nosedive.

The Magpies have now lost four of their last five games, conceding 11 times in that run. They’ve also lost four consecutive away trips in the league, which doesn’t bode well for a visit to Anfield.

The visitors have been beaten by two clear goals in defeats at Bournemouth, Everton and Tottenham across those four trips. They also suffered a loss to nil at Luton.

With Liverpool claiming seven wins from nine home games this term, they look good to take the points.

When you consider that all but one of those wins came by a two-goal margin or greater, the hosts look good value to clear a -1 handicap.

Nunez can trouble Magpies again

Back in August, Liverpool claimed a 2-1 win at St James’ Park with a couple of late strikes from Darwin Nunez.

The Uruguayan has a good early record against the Magpies, having struck in a win on Tyneside back in February 2023 as well.

Nunez returned to scoring form away to Burnley in Liverpool’s last game and that should see him handed another start on Monday night.

His physicality is a good match for a Newcastle defence which looks fatigued, having been pulled apart by Chris Wood just last week. 

Nunez is underperforming his Expected Goals tally by almost half through 18 appearances.

That should start to even out over the course of the campaign, especially with his confidence boosted with a goal. Newcastle have conceded twice in five of their last six league trips, so Nunez has a great chance to continue his fine scoring record against them. 

Reds to prove too strong

Liverpool are heavy favourites for the points in this one and their excellent record at Anfield this term suggests that is warranted.

Across 14 games in all competitions, only Manchester United and Arsenal have escaped without defeat, picking up a point apiece in the Reds’ last two home league games.

The hosts have scored 41 times across those 14 matches, with five of their seven home league wins coming via a 3-0 or 3-1 victory.

Newcastle head into this clash conceding two goals per away game on average, while their injury crisis has left them even more vulnerable.

They’ve conceded at least three times in three of their last five league matches, so this looks like a chance for Liverpool to start 2024 on a high.

The hosts can rack up three goals at home once again, while adding to their tally of five clean sheets.

Given the gap between the pair in terms of performances, look to a 3-0 home win at 9/1.

Best bets

Liverpool -1 @ 21/20
Darwin Nunez to score & Liverpool to win @ 6/4
Liverpool to win 3-0 @ 9/1