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WIN/DRAW/WIN

Leverkusen to beat Borussia Monchengladbach (14:30)

Leverkusen’s 4-1 win over Werder Bremen on Monday was their 10th victory in an 11-match unbeaten run.

With last weekend showing that home advantage is diminished behind closed doors, their odds look generous here.

Gladbach’s 3-1 win over Frankfurt last weekend was largely down to their fast start. With another week of training behind them, Leverkusen should provide a tougher test.

Freiburg to beat Werder Bremen (14:30)

Second-bottom Werder Bremen looked as good as down in their 4-1 defeat at home to Leverkusen on Monday night.

Florian Kohfeldt’s side have picked up one point in their last seven league games and are nine points away from a position of guaranteed safety.

Freiburg impressed in their away game at title challengers RB Leipzig, leading for much of the match before conceding late on to draw 1-1.

Dortmund to beat Wolfsburg (14:30)

Dortmund were ruthless in the Revierderby last weekend, winning 4-0 despite starting slowly.

That was an eighth victory in nine league games for Lucien Favre’s side, who are four points behind league leaders Bayern Munich with eight matches remaining.

Wolfsburg had to rely on a stoppage-time winner against relegation candidates Augsburg last weekend and were beaten 3-0 by Dortmund in the reverse fixture in November.

BTTS

Paderborn v Hoffenheim (14:30)

Paderborn have the equal second-highest BTTS ratio of any side in the Bundesliga, with both teams scoring in 17 of their 26 matches.

The relegation candidates have found the net at home to Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Leverkusen, only failing to score once on their own patch.

Hoffenheim have shipped 10 goals in their last three matches and haven’t kept a clean sheet in seven. BTTS, meanwhile, has landed in five of their last eight games.

ANYTIME GOALSCORERS

Christoph Baumgartner (Hoffenheim) to score v Paderborn

It is a mystery how Baumgartner didn’t score against Hertha Berlin last week after racking up an xG tally of 1.38.

The midfielder has scored in three of Hoffenheim’s last six away games, though, so can put that right in this one.

Paderborn have conceded at least twice in all of their last four home matches, the last two of which have been against bottom-half opposition.

Robin Koch (Freiburg) to score v Werder Bremen

This probably shouldn’t be included in any safe accumulators, but it is worth taking a punt on Koch to score his first goal of the season against Bremen.

The visitors are a disaster from set-pieces, conceding more goals from them than any other Bundesliga team, including one against Bayer Leverkusen on Monday.

Koch ranks top for xG of all Bundesliga defenders without a goal this season, and is 15th for shots per game of every defender in the league. He also had a late winner ruled out for a very marginal offside at RB Leipzig last week.

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