Adam Drury provides his football tips for Saturday's matches in the Premier League, EFL and around Europe.

WIN/DRAW/WIN

Freiburg to beat Greuther Furth & under 4.5 goals (14:30)

Freiburg are one of the success stories of the Bundesliga this season, not yet losing in nine matches and beating Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg.

They tend to perform particularly well against the big clubs, though, so their likely victory here shouldn’t be a rout.

Greuther Furth have lost their last five away games, with three of the last four featuring four goals or fewer.

Chelsea to beat Newcastle & under 3.5 goals (15:00)

Chelsea have won three of their four league away games with under 3.5 goals this season, with the exception a 1-1 draw at Liverpool.

The Blues are defensively good enough to hold Newcastle at arm’s length, meaning they’d have to score four goals for this bet not to land – something they’ve done once in 23 away matches.

Newcastle, who were beaten 2-0 in this fixture last season, are yet to win a home game this term.

Liverpool (-1) to beat Brighton (15:00)

Liverpool have played four league home matches this season, draws with Chelsea and Man City, and 2-0 and 3-0 wins against Burnley and Crystal Palace.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have won their last two league games 5-0 and are looking irresistible in every department.

Brighton were beaten 4-1 by Man City last week and, in contrast to last season, are due a bad result or two after overperforming their xPoints at the start of this season.

MK Dons to beat Crewe (15:00)

MK Dons beat third-placed Wigan last time out on the road, their sixth league win of the season.

Liam Manning’s side sit seventh in League One and can outplay bottom side Crewe side here.

The hosts have lost their last three matches 3-0, 4-0 and 2-1.

Port Vale to beat Crawley (15:00)

Port Vale have won six of their last eight league games, easily dispatching bottom-half opposition Barrow and Colchester in the last fortnight.

Darrell Clarke’s side deservedly sit second in League Two and take on out-of-form opposition.

Crawley have lost three in a row, including their last two league home games.

BTTS

BTTS & over 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Lazio (14:00)

This bet has landed in five of Atalanta’s last six Serie A matches, including a 2-2, 3-2 and 4-1.

That run includes games against Inter and AC Milan.

Lazio’s 10 league games have featured 37 goals, with this bet landing against Roma and Inter in their last five.

BTTS in Sheffield United v Blackpool (15:00)

Sheffield United have scored and conceded in seven of their last eight home games, including a 6-2 and two 2-2s.

The Blades also won 3-2 at Barnsley last time out.

BTTS has landed in all of Blackpool’s seven away games this season.

BTTS in Bradford v Forest Green (15:00)

BTTS has landed in six of Bradford’s seven league home matches this season.

The Bantams also won 3-1 at Swindon last weekend to make it three straight matches in which they have scored and conceded.

League leaders Forest Green have scored in seven of their eight away matches this term.

MYTHBUSTER

Scunthorpe to win or draw v Colchester (15:00)

Colchester are sliding towards the League Two relegation zone after a run of one win in eight matches.

They have won one of their seven league home games, only scoring four goals.

Scunthorpe have picked up four points from their last two games, indicating a small improvement.

ANYTIME GOALSCORER

Duvan Zapata (Atalanta) to score v Lazio (14:00)

Zapata has scored five goals this season and several more should follow shortly.

The striker ranks eighth for shots per game in Serie A and has registered 0.98 xG per 90 minutes this season.

He takes on a Lazio defence that has conceded seven goals in its last two away games.

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