Missing data is what can enable you to find good bets to place, says the former Counter-Strike professional in his latest column
Despite explaining in my previous blog how betting on lesser-known teams may be more profitable in the long run, there are some trends in how fans are viewing the top teams of the Counter-Strike world that I believe can be profitable to bet against.
In my first blog I touched on the subject of how fans are often either too quick or too slow to form an opinion on a team after a meteoric rise to the top or a less-than-subtle fall.
While the free markets are the best thing we have in valuing anything in the world – including top Counter-Strike teams – there are always going to be imperfections in any market and it is the job of arbitrageurs to find those imperfections and hammer them home until they no longer exist.
Only one important event has taken place in 2016, but DreamHack Open Leipzig is beginning this week and there will be many more events in the next weeks and months.
Much of the analysis here will be speculative, but that is due to recent data missing, which is what can enable you to find good bets to place.
I believe the current team of ex-Titan is underrated, though they still are clear underdogs against top-five teams.
shox can be a top-five player in the world when motivated, ScreaM remains a productive near star-level player and Ex6TenZ’s leadership has constantly proven problematic for teams like fnatic.
Luminosity have proven they are good enough to contend for titles in the future, but they have not yet proven they are consistent enough to become an elite team, so look for matches against fnatic, EnVyUs or ex-TSM to go short on Luminosity, while taking the Brazilians’ side against the likes of NiP, Cloud9 or FaZe.
coldzera is a star, fer has dropped a bit in play and FalleN has arguably become the best leader in the game. All the ingredients are there and I would be surprised if they were not considered a top-six team by the year’s end.
New NiP roster’s debut was a disappointing 2-1 win over E-Frag online and it is possible that this team new team will actually be worse than fans are expecting as there are still many questions to be answered.
Both GeT_RiGhT and f0rest became mortals, seemingly for good, last year, while friberg continues to be a net-negative on the roster – and it remains uncertain that threat’s very precise tactical approach will be the cure to NiP’s issues.
The Danes of Astralis and the Frenchmen of EnVyUs both have shown glaring weaknesses in recent months, despite still being good enough to beat any elite team in a series. This added volatility should be kept in mind when glancing at odds for their games.
I believe Astralis is one of the most complete teams in the scene and will probably become more consistent as time goes on, but frankly it is beginning to seem as if EnVyUs may never be able to sort their issues.
The grand final blowout of Na`Vi vs. fnatic at SL i-League StarSeries XIV Finals last weekend reminds us that the ex-CIS powerhouse can still disappear at times, whereas dennis’ resurfacing showed a whole new level of potential in this new fnatic team.
olofm’s team can out-skill anyone else, but at some point they will face real issues tactically with flusha in charge, while teams such as Na`Vi, Luminosity and Astralis will spend more time on trying to figure them out.
These trends will keep changing at a rapid pace while results keep coming in.
Make sure to ride the wave when possible – it might lead to some free lunches in betting.
READ: lurppis: The art of specialising in betting
