It is a task that has eluded them in the last two Tests, says the Analyst, who acknowledges it is hard to see them winning...
Despite England’s good recent record in Mumbai, it is hard to see them winning the fourth Test.
There is a new opener to accommodate – Keaton Jennings, another left hander – and continued uncertainty about England’s best XI.
Whereas India will probably keep the same team that won the third Test by eight wickets and Virat Kohli looks invincible. He is averaging 101 in the series.
England have won the last two Tests at the Wankhede Stadium – one under Andrew Flintoff in 2006, the other the dramatic victory under Alastair Cook in 2012, inspired by Kevin Pietersen’s brilliant 184.
But this England batting order is less certain of itself and England do not have the luxury of two high-class spinners like Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar.
It will be a tough baptism for Jennings, the son of former South African keeper and coach Ray Jennings.
Not only has he never played in India – though he has visited when his father was coaching in the IPL – but more importantly he has never experienced the Decision Review System.
Ravi Ashwin, the No. 1 bowler in the world, preys on left handers – 53% of his wickets are lefties – and now he has an enhanced DRS to exploit too.
Almost half his left handed victims are bowled or lbw.
Coming into face Ashwin in a Test match, a batsman has to completely recalibrate his method, playing either right back or with the bat well out in front and with great precision.
No longer can he use the pad as a second line of defence. It is a very steep learning curve and there is no room for mistakes, as Ben Duckett has already discovered.
Somehow, England have to cobble together a decent first innings score, a task that has eluded them in the last two Tests.
After his dashing hundred in the first Test, batting at No. 5, Moeen Ali has looked vulnerable and is perhaps over-exposed at No. 4 in these conditions.
Jonny Bairstow cannot keep digging them out of a hole forever.
The pitch in Mumbai usually has a bit more bounce and carry than other Indian pitches meaning at least England’s seamers might get more out of the surface.
But India have the two quickest bowlers on either side and one, Mohammed Shami, who is as probing and dangerous as the Australian Ryan Harris was when fit.
What England will hope for is a more predictable pitch – one on which the ball spins consistently rather than the previous two tracks where one turned and three didn’t.
The galvanizing effect of a large contingent of England fans attending the match, too.
But the chance of sending them home happy rests with the top order batting the best part of a day in England’s first innings.
Nothing less than 413 – their first innings total here last time – will do.
