The best chance of winning the deciding ODI against Bangladesh is to silence the home crowd early, says the Analyst...
Two cracking matches in Dhaka have set up an intriguing decider in the port city of Chittagong.
If the England players thought the atmosphere in Mirpir was fervent, wait until they get to the Zahur Ahmed Chowdury Stadium.
Without an English fan in sight, the noise will be deafening. Even the forecast rain will barely dampen the home crowd’s spirits.
The crowd will undoubtedly be Bangladesh’s 12th man, unless England get off to a good start with bat or ball.
Then they will immediately fall silent.
If Jason Roy and James Vince put on a substantial stand – or Chris Woakes again takes early wickets – you will be able to hear a pin drop.
That will be England’s best chance of winning, to make a statement in the first 10 overs.
With bad weather expected, it is likely to be a shortened game. In which case both sides will look to field first, especially with the pitch having been under covers for the last 24 hours.
Evening dew will also make it slightly easier to bat second. That was certainly England’s experience the last time they played here, in the 2011 World Cup.
Chasing 226, Bangladesh sneaked home by two wickets.
England are likely to keep the same team as the one that was defeated on Sunday.
Jake Ball has done a fine job as the injured Liam Plunkett’s deputy, and looks to have the head for these sorts of heights.
He was calm under pressure and seems to have good changes of pace along with a decent yorker.
Provided Adil Rashid can keep his sit-up-and-beg deliveries to a minimum, the bowling looks reliable.
England’s batting needs a clearer strategy though.
Roy and Vince have to be strong and purposeful at the top without being reckless.
In the subcontinent, the first 10 overs are the best time to bat, but Vince has twice given his wicket away too softly.
It is a lot to ask of Ben Duckett to come in at three and if England are asked to bat first, Ben Stokes – who has finally found the right tempo for one day cricket – might be a better choice.
If there is a strong position at the halfway point, Jos Buttler should promote himself too.
The more time England’s premier striker gets in the middle, the better. None of Bangladesh’s useful assortment of seamers and spinners have any idea how to keep him quiet.
The advantage of the crowd and familiarity with the conditions makes Bangladesh good value at {ODDS:108809295:33/20}.
Their bowling is varied and well thought out, their fielding committed, if at times fallible, and their batting explosive.
But if England can eat away at their main batsmen, their lower order may crack. There is very little in it.
Lets hope the rain doesn’t ruin it.
