Jodar offers value in Montreal, while Shnaider and Svitolina present intriguing alternatives to heavy favourites in Toronto
If you’ve just been enjoying the summer, maybe you’re taking a break from sports after the World Cup; you’re missing an interesting men’s tennis event going on in Montreal at the National Bank Open.
Youth have completely taken over the tournament. The quarterfinal field of Rafael Jodar, Arthur Fils, Luciano Darderi, Brandon Nakashima, Daniel Merida, Learner Tien, Jakub Mensik and Ben Shelton were all born in the 2000s – the first time that’s happened at a Masters 1000 event.
For bettors, that makes it far less predictable.
Going in, bettors were focused on home court advantage for the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime, but he withdrew from his second-round match because of a back injury. Auger-Aliassime entered the tournament as the No. 2 seed.
Ben Shelton is at the top of the pile if you’re looking at favourites for tournament winner, since he’s No. 5 ranked, dispatching 19-year-old Brazilian star Joao Fonseca 6-3, 7-6 (3) to reach the quarterfinal.
Shelton is the defending National Bank Open champion. He has a legitimate pathway to another title.
In today’s quarterfinal action, on the men’s side, Rafael Jodar (No. 20) plays Arthur Fils (No. 18) at 6 p.m. EST, followed by Luciano Darderi (No. 19) versus Brandon Nakashima (No. 28) at 7:30 p.m. EST.
In tennis betting at Betway, the first match is tight, with Jodar the slight favourite, at -125, Fils at +100. Nakashima is the solid favourite at -250, Darderi at +190.
In terms of best bets, look at Jodar Moneyline, since he’s playing the best tennis of his career, and recently beat Fils at the Mubadala DC Open in Washington on July 28.
In the match after that, I’ll take the Exact Total Sets (3, +130), with Nakashima the likely winner, with Darderi showing plenty of fight in the tournament so far.
Nakashima is much better suited to North American hard courts, and Darderi to clay courts.
In the WTA tournament in Toronto, the draw has also been ripped apart. Aryna Sabalenko and Jessica Pegula both were eliminated in the Round of 16. That dramatically changed the futures picture.
On the women’s singles side today, Diana Shnaider (No. 15) takes on No. 7-ranked Iga Swiatek at 7 p.m. EST, followed by Ekaterina Alexandrova (No. 16) and Elina Svitolina (No. 9) at 8:30 p.m. EST.
At Betway, Swiatek is -300, Shnaider +230, while Svitolina is -275, and Alexandrova is +200.
I’m not going to lay down that -300 number on Swiatek. She had to come from behind to beat Marta Kostyuk, and according to the Women’s Tennis Association site, that victory snapped a seven-match losing streak in three-set matches.
And remember, Shnaider rolled over Pegula 6-3, 6-3. In their only previous meeting, Swiatek won in three sets, with Shnaider taking 11 games.
There’s a strong case for backing Shnaider to win a set (Yes) at -112.
In the later match, I prefer Svitolina, just not at that heavy Moneyline price. Svitolina leads the head-to-head 3-1 and is 2-0 against Alexandrova on hard courts. Svitolina is also 39-11 in 2026, compared with 14-18 for Alexandrova.
So instead of laying -275, why not take Svitolina to win 2-0 (-118)?
Today isn’t the total quarterfinal round for the tournament. The other four singles QFs are tomorrow.
