Our Falcons vs Saints betting picks for NFL Week 4 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same-game parlay
The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) are in the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans (1-2) tonight to take on the Saints. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m.
Atlanta went 2-0 against their NFC South rivals last season.
In a big 35-14 upset win over the Green Bay Packers last Thursday night, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returned from a year-long absence due to an ACL injury and impressed.
The Saints, meanwhile, lost 35-27 to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3, led by QB Tyler Shough, who went 29-for-42, 255 yards and four TDs.
On the injury front for tonight, ESPN lists LB Yasir Abdullah (illness), LB Divine Deablo (hamstring), and DE Samson Ebukam as questionable, while CB A.J. Terrell (groin) is out.
On the Saints’ side, LB Anfernee Jennings (knee), DE Carl Granderson (ankle), LB Kaden Elliss (calf), WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring), RB Travis Etienne (hamstring), and OT Kelvin Banks Jr. (ankle) are all out. LB Pete Werner (neck) and TE Noah Fant (abdomen) are questionable.
Falcons vs Saints Odds
In NFL betting at Betway, the Saints are slight -115 moneyline favourites over the Falcons (-105). New Orleans is also a 1.5-point home favourite at -105, with Atlanta +1.5 priced at -115. The total is set at 47.5, with both the over and under at -110.
So, the Saints have a small home-field edge in what is essentially a toss-up game. With the 47.5 total, the market anticipates a tighter, but higher-scoring divisional matchup.
Falcons vs Saints Betting Trends
Atlanta has won the last two meetings outright, 24-10 in New Orleans and 19-17 in Atlanta. Recent meetings have leaned Under, cashing in four of the past six meetings (including both games last season), according to Covers.
The Falcons are money on Monday night – 9-1 since 2015, the second-best record in the NFL over that span.
Falcons vs Saints Betting Picks
With my Falcons vs Saints picks, I think there’s value here with the Falcons as the slight underdog. I look at Penix Jr.’s strong offensive performance last week (18-for-25, 256 yards, one touchdown). I also look at the Falcons’ rushing attack, which has averaged 173 yards per game.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson destroyed the Packers last week, rumbling for 194 yards. Wide receiver Drake London caught 9 passes for 194 yards. The Saints, meanwhile, sit seventh-worst in the NFL, giving up 128.7 yards rushing per game and fifth-worst in points allowed, at 27.7, while giving up an average of 211.7 yards per game, 14th in the NFL.
In my NFL picks, I’m taking the Falcons moneyline (-105). Not worth the extra juice, looking at that +1.5 spread.
Also, I like the Over 47.5 (-110). Shough has been a revelation at quarterback through three games, throwing for 917 yards, for a 68.9% completion rate, among league leaders with eight touchdowns.
This projects to be a high-scoring game that overwhelms the defence.
That points to one key matchup to focus on: Robinson versus the Saints’ depleted front seven, factoring in all those injuries, and whether you think Atlanta can control the game on the ground.
Another key matchup is Penix Jr. and London versus the Saints’ secondary. London has averaged 100.4 receiving yards over his ten starts with Penix going back to last season, according to the New Orleans site.
Another matchup to watch is Shough versus Atlanta’s secondary. The Falcons rank third-last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, at 263.0 yards. And the loss of Terrell Jr. is a big hit for the Falcons.
That leads me to my favourite player prop: Shough 250+ passing yards at -145. Shough is averaging 304 passing yards per game, off 56, 34, and 42 attempts. Good balance between price and Shough’s expected volume. If you want plus money, Betway has 275+ yards at +115.
Atlanta’s pass defence is porous, and Shough doesn’t need to have an amazing night to get me to 250+, to hit on that wager. If Atlanta gets ahead and rides that elite running game, which I think will happen, New Orleans will have to throw a lot.
Falcons vs Saints Same Game Parlay Picks
My three legs for tonight, leaning Atlanta: Robinson 70+ rushing yards, London 6+ receptions, and Shough 250+ passing yards (combined payout +320). Atlanta runs through a decimated Saints linebacking corps, and London came off nine catches last week, and draws a favorable matchup against Quincy Riley.
