Our NFL Week 2 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off tonight in Buffalo’s shiny new home, Highmark Stadium, as the Bills (1-0) host the Detroit Lions (1-0), in what many football traditionalists hope is a Super Bowl preview.
Sunday brings a full slate of games, followed by the Monday night game in L.A., where the New York Giants take on the Rams.
Bettors are sorting through what’s fact versus what’s fiction after Week 1. Looking over all the offensive explosions, surprising upsets, and warning signs around teams expected to contend (I’m looking at you, L.A. Rams), what’s real and what’s noise?
That’s what I am thinking about as I make my NFL Week 2 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 2 Betting Landscape
How much should one game change your opinion about a team? The Chicago Bears dominated the bigger line movements Sunday night across the NFL, after last weekend’s blowout win over the Carolina Panthers. So did the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders.
And there’s no way that was the real Bo Nix and Denver Broncos in their Monday Night blowout loss to the Chiefs.
Injuries add another layer to your calculation, of course. Kyler Murray is out with a concussion and won’t start at quarterback this week for Minnesota against the Bears in Chicago. The Lions have losses in their secondary, facing Bills QB Josh Allen tonight, and are also missing two offensive linemen. Texans star receiver Nico Collins injured a hamstring during practice and is uncertain to play against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
Am I overvaluing Chicago’s 59-point opener, and is the Giants’ improvement under John Harbaugh and the emergence of Jaxson Dart real enough to bet them as 6.5-point underdogs against the Rams Monday night?
The Bills were impressive in Week 1, but tonight against Detroit is a tougher test, even with the injuries. And do the Dallas Cowboys, Texans, and the Rams offer any ATS bounceback value after their disappointing Week 1 results?
Several teams are looking at 0-2 pressure games. Denver, Houston, Dallas, Miami and Tennessee and several others are trying to avoid 0-2 starts. The Broncos especially, hosting a Jaguars team coming off a 34-10 win over the Browns.
Another factor for ATS bettor – many of this weekend’s games have divisional familiarity. Raiders-Chargers, Vikings-Bears, Cowboys-Commanders, all involve teams that know each other’s schemes and personnel well. That can complicate any conclusions you may have gleaned from Week 1.
And how bad is Miami, 13.5-point underdogs on the road in San Francisco?
NFL Week 2 Betting Trends
The big trend is bettors resisting the temptation to chase opening-week results. Since 2019, NFL favourites have won 64.6% of Week 2 games outright but covered just 40.2% of the time. Home favourites performed especially poorly there at 35.1%. Based on data I’ve seen since 2016, Week 2 road underdogs between +1 and +6.5 are 44-17 ATS.
NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread
So where do I go with my NFL betting picks for Week 2?
Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) versus Chicago Bears
Yes, Chicago was spectacular in their Week 1 win, 59-37 over Carolina, but I’m looking at the 37 points they gave up, plus the fact that the Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 39-22.
Now the Bears at home are laying more than a field goal against a divisional opponent that won 14 games last season.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) versus Detroit Lions
Call me a homer, but I love the Bills tonight in NFL betting, especially with Detroit’s secondary injuries. I’m looking at Allen rushing and passing props now. Allen accounted for 357 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1, facing a Texans defence that allowed the fewest yards in the NFL last season.
Detroit gave up 400 passing yards to the Saints’ QB Tyler Shough in Week 1. Plus, Detroit has injury issues with their offensive line – starting right tackle Blake Miller and left guard Christian Mahogany are both out.
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) versus Seattle Seahawks
I am really interested in the home underdog at that Betway price. The Cardinals pulled off a massive upset win over the L.A. Chargers in Week 1 as a 9.5-point underdog. Seattle won’t have Sam Darnold at quarterback and are starting Drew Lock on the road.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) versus Tennessee Titans
This is really the only big favourite where I’m willing to lay down money. The Eagles didn’t blow anyone’s doors off last week against Washington but still won 24-22. The Titans scored just ten points against the Jets. The Eagles have a big defensive advantage in this one.
Sunday NFL Week 2 Parlay Picks
So give me Bills -5.5, Vikings +4.5 and Cardinals +4.5 (a tasty +581 at Betway). I will mull it over this afternoon, but a nice backup to that is Vikings +4.5, Cardinals +4.5 and Commanders +3.5 (+581).
