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The Golden State Warriors ran away with Game 1 of their Western Conference Finals series against the Dallas Mavericks, yet no one expects Dallas to go away quietly.

Game 2, as always, marks a chance to swing the series in either direction. A Warriors win puts Dallas in a hole as the series switches locations. A Dallas win evens things and gives the Mavericks home court advantage in the final five games of the series.

This game features a host of subplots and storylines that could put one of these teams on the path to the NBA Finals. Here are the five bets I’m eyeing for this critical matchup.

Mavericks +6.5 

The Warriors ran away with Game 1 of this series, though the analytics told another story. ShotQuality, which measures tracks the value of each shot taken and the likelihood it is made or missed, saw that game as a toss-up, with the Warriors simply making the shots that Dallas failed to hit.

Both teams should see their shooting regress more toward the mean, making this game a closer contest. Add in the pressure on Dallas to return home having avoided an 0-2 hole and the Mavericks make for an intriguing play here.

I’m skeptical that the Mavs will win the game, but 6.5 points is too rich to pass up. Take Dallas with the spread, hoping the Mavericks catch enough shooting luck to keep the game in striking distance.

Stephen Curry over 37.5 points + rebounds + assists 

This is an intriguing number for Curry, but its one that he has not struggled to reach during this postseason. Curry has had 37 or more combined points, rebounds, and assists in five of Golden State’s last six games. The lone exception was the Warriors absolute no-show in Game 5 in Memphis, which the Grizzlies won by 39 points, leading to a short 25-minute night for Curry.

Curry has been even more productive on Golden State’s home floor in San Francisco. The elite sharpshooter has averaged 27.4 points, 5.1 assists, and 5.3 rebounds in seven home games this postseason. Those numbers include his first game back from an injury, in which Curry saw just 21 minutes of play.

Remove that outlier performance and he’s averaging 40.3 combined points, rebounds, and assists at home in Bay in the playoffs.

Dorian Finney-Smith over 10.5 points 

Finney-Smith was the hero of the Mavs Game 4 win in the Conference Semifinals, notching eight three-pointers in that game, good for all 24 of his points that day.

Since then, opposing defenses have eyed on the Mavericks’ best standstill shooter and limited his quality shots. Since that game, Finney-Smith has taken 14 long balls and made just five. That’s still a strong percentage, but a much lower volume of shots. He took double-digit field goal attempts in seven of Dallas’ first ten playoff games, yet has now gone five games without doing so.

Finney-Smith is due to break out again, with head coach Jason Kidd sure to find ways to free up some shots for his best marksman.

Luka Doncic over 3.5 three-pointers made 

If we’re leaning towards a close game or Dallas upset, then there needs to be a Doncic play on the board as well. There’s just no way for Dallas to keep pace on the road against the Warriors without a strong outing from their All-Star.

Of the Doncic related props available, this is the one that caught my eye. In his first five postseason games, Doncic shot 39 per cent from long range, sinking an average of four of 10 attempts per game. In his last six games, Doncic is shooting only 29.6 per cent from outside the arc, making only an average of 2.7 deep balls on 9.0 attempts per game. Those latter numbers even include his red hot 6-11 night in Game 7 in Phoenix. Outside of that, his shot has not been falling.

He's ready for another hot shooting night, with a high shooting percentage and high volume from long range.