Brandon Anderson previews six of the first-round match-ups in this season's NBA playoffs, and assesses the best bets for each one.
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EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Boston Celtics vs (7) Brooklyn Nets
When we last saw Kevin Durant in the playoffs, he came one shoe size away from taking down the Bucks by himself. This year he’s got Kyrie Irving back, and though we probably won’t see Ben Simmons, role players like Bruce Brown, Seth Curry, and Patty Mills will help.
Still, the same problems persist. The Nets don’t bring any defense to the table, and the Celtics have the league’s best offense since the start of February as they’ve blitzed through the league, going 29–6 since January 29 with three of those losses by a single bucket. Boston’s defense is compromised a bit without Robert Williams, but the Celtics are still the deeper, more versatile team.
Boston will have a huge advantage anytime Durant sits, and their depth and energy will only make things harder as the series extends. I’m looking to bet the Celtics in third quarters, where they have the No. 3 Net Rating for the season versus 23rd for Brooklyn.
Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving may score enough on their own to win a game or two, but the Celtics should win this series.
THE PICK: Celtics in 6
THE BET: Celtics to win the series {ODDS:916686740:727/1000}
(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs (6) Chicago Bulls
The Bulls had a great start to the season but lost the rope with all the injuries and never got it back. The defense hasn’t been the same without Lonzo Ball, and the team is just 2–21 against teams that finished top-four in either conference.
Milwaukee is the defending champ and looks poised for another deep run. Unlike the Bulls, the Bucks are getting healthy at the right time with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton back. Milwaukee is still the best team in the East until proven otherwise.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have owned their local rival. Chicago hasn’t beaten the Bucks with Giannis playing since 2017. They’re not about to do it four times in seven games.
There’s little reason to believe this series will be competitive. I’ll look to bet the Bucks to win the first half and put games away quickly, and I’m betting on a short series.
THE PICK: Bucks in 4
THE BET: Bucks to win series 4–0 {ODDS:916686838:11/4}
(4) Philadelphia 76ers vs (5) Toronto Raptors
This should be the best Eastern matchup in the first round.
Toronto has a plethora of big, switchy wing defenders who should make this a miserable series for James Harden. But the Raptors have no true center, which could leave things wide open for Joel Embiid.
The chess match will be really interesting, and Raptors coach Nick Nurse has proven himself a grandmaster in the playoffs with the way he prepares. There’s no question Philadelphia has the talent edge with Embiid and Harden,a third max player in Tobias Harris, and a budding star in Tyrese Maxey. But what if Nurse has the Raptors swarm Harden and stay home on shooters, and forces Embiid to beat them on his own? Can Harden step up? Can Embiid finally handle the double team?
Even if they do, the Raptors offense will struggle to score, because they have all season. The Raps can’t outscore the Sixers. They’ll have to keep games low scoring, and they’ll need to keep their fouls down and turn the Sixers over. Toronto has been one of the league’s best fourth quarter teams, so the Raptors could have the advantage if it’s close late.
Expect a long, tight series.
THE PICK: 76ers in 7
THE BET: Wait and see
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs (7) Minnesota Timberwolves
This might be the most entertaining series in the first round, between two of the league’s brightest and most exciting young teams.
The Grizzlies made some noise last year in the playoffs after advancing out of the play-in with a pair of wins. Ja Morant was a star, and now he and the team have taken another huge leap forward thanks to an MVP campaign from Morant and big improvement from Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and others. The Grizzlies are one of the league’s deepest teams, and the defense swarms and forces big turnovers.
But depth is muted in the playoffs as the starters take on bigger roles, and that could favor the Timberwolves since Minnesota should be able to ramp up minutes for Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell. The Wolves have played the Grizzlies tight this season, and Russell could have a big scoring series against a drop defense that will let him fire away on jumpers. Minnesota has had one of the league’s best offenses since the calendar turned to 2022.
The Wolves celebrated an emotional play-in win on Tuesday night, but they’re not just happy to be here. This is a really intriguing matchup, with serious advantages on each side. This series could go either way if the Timberwolves offense shows up. Expect a close, long series.
THE PICK: Grizzlies in 6
THE BET: Grizzlies series -1.5 {ODDS:916686779:3/5}
(3) Golden State Warriors vs (6) Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are completely outmatched in this series. Nikola Jokic will likely repeat as MVP, and he’s the best player in this series right now, but he just doesn’t have any help, especially with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. confirmed out.
The Nuggets are running on fumes and playing backups around Jokic, and the matchups are all wrong. Denver doesn’t force many turnovers and allows one of the highest 2-point percentages in the league on defense, so Golden State should score plenty of points. The Warriors defense is also the best in the league at limiting efficient scoring and taking away easy shots, the one biggest strength of Denver’s.
Steph Curry’s health is a question mark to start the series, but he says he’s ready to go. If the Warriors are healthy, this series shouldn’t be close. Credit Jokic for dragging this ragtag team to the playoffs, but this is the end of the road.
THE PICK: Warriors in 5
THE BET: Warriors series -1.5 {ODDS:916686828:19/20}
(4) Dallas Mavericks vs (5) Utah Jazz
We still don’t know if or when Luka Doncic will play in this series after he picked up a calf injury on the final day of the season, and that makes this one impossible to predict.
The Mavs are the most heliocentric team in the NBA, and Doncic is everything. Dallas can still play tough defense without him, but the Jazz are the far better team and an elite team on paper with the league’s top rated offense. It’s tough to see the Mavs scoring enough without Doncic to keep up with this Jazz offense.
Still, the Doncic injury leaves far too much in flux to pick an angle here. I like the Jazz until we know more, but there’s no value with the line inflated and too much uncertainty.
THE PICK: Jazz in 6
THE BET: Pass
