Shane McNichol makes his NBA predictions for Friday night, with four best bets.
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Friday kicks off an absolutely loaded weekend of NBA games, with 20 teams in action across ten games dotted in every time zone the league occupies.
MVP candidates and playoff-hungry teams have the chance to earn critical wins as we enter the home stretch of the regular season.
Here are my four favorite bets on the board:
Golden State Warriors (-5.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers {ODDS:1107529347:1.90}
My obsession with the Warriors home and road splits this season has been well documented over the course of this season in my picks. Thanks to a 24-12 ATS record in their home arena, the Warriors have essentially become an automatic bet for me when playing in the Bay Area.
There’s reason to doubt the Dubs with tonight’s opponent in town: the red-hot Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid’s MVP campaign is in full swing as Philly tries to climb in the Eastern Conference standings. Embiid has always relished playing against the league’s tentpole franchises and Golden State’s roster is not well-suited to slow him down.
He may, however, be slowed down by a calf issue that caused him to miss the second half of Philly’s last outing in Chicago. The Sixers led that game by a few dozen points, leaving no reason for their star to return, but his absence was handled in a peculiar way. Fans and reporters were quick to notice Embiid didn’t start the second half or join the team on the bench after halftime, with no official word coming for nearly 30 minutes in real time.
Even if he’s good to go in San Francisco tonight, expect Embiid a step slower or restricted to fewer minutes than usual. Golden State’s homecourt magic once again comes through.
Chicago Bulls (-2.5) at Portland Trailblazers {ODDS:1107529335:1.90}
The Sixers’ dismantling of the Bulls in Chicago ended a three-game winning streak for the Bulls, in which Chicago looked poised to make a run for a playoff spot. After falling behind 17-0 to start that game, the Bulls essentially waved the white flag, giving their starters far fewer minutes than they typically would.
That leaves Chicago well rested despite a long trip to Portland, facing a Blazers team in trouble. Portland is just 4-10 since the All-Star break, with three of those wins coming against the tanking or terrible Magic, Rockets, and Pistons.
Anfernee Simons remains sidelined due to injury, leaving far too much on Damian Lillard’s plate night after night. Against a motivated team like Chicago, the Blazers don’t have enough answers.
Detroit Pistons (+14.5) at Toronto Raptors {ODDS:1107433871:1.90}
The Pistons may be headed to the gutter, chasing better odds in the 2023 NBA Draft lottery rather than regular season wins. There’s no denying that, given Detroit’s 16-57 record with just one win since the All-Star Break.
This line, on the other hand, is massive. In three prior meetings this year, Detroit has played Toronto close. The Raps won all three games, doing so by just nine total combined points.
The young Pistons are built to lose games, yet all they need to do here is stay within arm’s reach. I like their chances to do so.
First field goal: Shai Gilgeous Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) vs LA Lakers
First basket props can be a real minefield, but this one stands out among the listings for Friday night. Gilgeous-Alexander is not the favorite to score first in the Thunder’s matchup with the Lakers, trailing Anthony Davis. With LeBron James out with injury, Davis is the Lakers’ first option, yet not to a degree that I’d favor his odds over SGA.
Gilgeous-Alexander is top 10 in the league in usage rate and is taking more than 20 field goals per game. Davis hasn’t taken that many shots in any of his last seven games.
