Adrian Humphries says that while Jannik Sinner has been playing well since his return from suspension, it's a surprise that Carlos Alcaraz has been installed as a slight outsider to successfully defend his French Open title when the two top seeds clash in the final at Roland Garros.
This year’s French Open final could easily be closely fought – something has to give when two players who have never lost a Grand Slam final cross swords – but the trophy match between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz isn’t sure to be a nip-and-tuck affair.
Reigning champion Alcaraz has had the benefit of competing throughout the first half of 2025, whereas Sinner was banned soon after his Australian Open title triumph in January and returned to the courts only in Rome last month.
That lack of match practice is unlikely to aid the Italian top seed in the Roland Garros final and so it’s quite startling to see French Open title-holder Alcaraz not heading the market for the season’s second Grand Slam tournament final.
French Open men’s final best bets
Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jannik Sinner @ 19/20
Carlos Alcaraz to win set one @ 9/10
Carlos Alcaraz to win set two @ 9/10
Question marks over form of oddsmakers’ favourite Sinner
It’s not only Sinner’s lack of court time that may work in Alcaraz’s favour, because the second seed’s form at Roland Garros looks superior to the Italian’s too.
Sinner has beaten only two seeds on his way to the final – and one of those black-type players was 38-year-old Novak Djokovic. The other, Andrey Rublev, had opportunities to trouble the top seed but failed to make the most of his chances.
Alcaraz, in contrast, has seen off four solid sorts in Fabian Marozsan, Ben Shelton and in-form duo Tommy Paul and Lorenzo Musetti. And while the Spaniard had to dig a little deeper in order to prevail against Shelton and Musetti, Alcaraz still did the job tidily enough.
Sinner obviously represents Alcaraz’s biggest threat yet, but Alcaraz is highly likely to pose the world number one significantly more trouble than Djokovic did in the last four. And there is no guarantee that Sinner, who is no stranger to making unforced errors when under pressure, will be able to counter the barrage of accurate groundstrokes that will come his way.
Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jannik Sinner @ 19/20
Sinner far from certain to make fast start in final
The main recommendation is Alcaraz to win the final and lift the title, so it may be wise for punters to keep any other bets to a minimum.
However, for those who like to have more than one bet on a sporting event, having a modest interest on Alcaraz winning sets one and two could realise profit.
Alcaraz has the potential to win the final well – it’s Sinner’s first slow-court major final appearance – so modest interests on the champion winning each of the first two sets would seem viable options.
True, Sinner has not dropped a set in the men’s singles this year. However, Alcaraz has lost only one opening set, to Musetti in their semi-final clash, and one second set, to the useful Hungarian Marozsan in round two.
So the second seed could easily counter quickly even if he makes a slow start, which is no certainty anyway.
Carlos Alcaraz to win set one @ 17/20
Carlos Alcaraz to win set two @ 9/10
