The 2026 Australian Open has once again seen the cream rise to the top with three of the four women's semi-finalists either previous Grand Slam champions or beaten finalists.
We take a look at Thursday’s action and offer our best bets for the final-four match-ups.
Women’s Australian Open Semi-final Best Bets
Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 @ 8/11
Jessica Pegula v Elena Rybakina Total Games – Over 22.5 @ 17/20
Jessica Pegula +2.5 Game Handicap @ 21/20
Sabalenka set for straight-sets success
Aryna Sabalenka goes up against a familiar opponent in the first semi-final and she has beaten Elina Svitolina in five of their previous six meetings.
The world number one has been flawless in Melbourne, winning 10 consecutive sets and dropping less than two games in four of them.
She should be relatively fresh ahead of this clash with Svitolina, who conserved her energy levels in a 59-minute dismantling of Coco Gauff in her quarter-final.
Dominating Sabalenka will be much more difficult for the Ukrainian, with the top seed having consistently crushed her opponents’ second serves.
Svitolina is unbeaten this year after a title in Auckland and a statement run here, but her defensive resilience and counterpunching have not previously outfoxed Sabalenka.
Three of their last four matches have been straight-sets wins for the Belarusian and she holds all the cards for this clash too as a two-time former Melbourne champion and a four-time Grand Slam winner.
Given Sabalenka’s clean path to the last four, superior serve/return metrics and dominant recent head-to-head, backing her to win in straight sets remains the most logical way to side with the favourite at a backable price.
Tip 1: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 @ 8/11
Second semi-final could go long
Fifth seed Elena Rybakina rides into the semi-finals with a 7-1 record for 2026 and a Melbourne campaign built on a dominant delivery, winning around 75 per cent of first-serve points and being broken only a handful of times all tournament.
The Kazakh leads most key 2026 serve and return metrics over American sixth seed Pegula and has a slight recent edge in their rivalry, particularly on hard courts, which underpins her status as favourite.
Pegula, who is 8-1 for the season, has also not dropped a set in Melbourne and comes in battle-hardened after back‑to‑back wins over big hitters Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova.
Both women have been efficient rather than erratic, but Pegula’s scrambling ability and low, flat groundstrokes are well-suited to dragging Rybakina into longer exchanges, especially in quick conditions.
This matchup could easily go the distance, just as their last one did at the WTA Finals in Riyadh.
Therefore, with the total-games line around the low‑20s, it looks like an invitation to take an over, covering the likelihood of a close two-setter or a full-distance battle.
Tip 2: Pegula v RybakinaTotal Games – Over 22.5 @ 17/20
Pegula can stay within touching distance
While Rybakina deserves to be favourite, the head-to-head is level at 3-3 and Pegula’s current level plus her tougher draw hint that she is slightly underestimated on the handicap.
Taking Pegula with a 2.5-game headstart allows for a narrow Rybakina win or an outright Pegula success and aligns with the feeling that this as the more unpredictable and competitive of the two semi-finals.
Tip 3: Jessica Pegula +2.5 Game Handicap @ 21/20
