The horse racing broadcaster offers his top four selections for the big race at Epsom on Saturday.
A change in the weather and an unusually large field make this year’s Derby a fascinating renewal. Here is a runner-by- runner look at the field.
AL WASL STORM 50/1 Grey Chester maiden winner representing owners who have had several horses outrun their odds in recent renewals. Hard to make any sort of case for, though. **
DAMYSUS 12/1 Placed in a couple of trials, including the Dante behind Pride of Arras. The step up in trip should suit but will need luck from stall 15 given his usual hold up tactics. ***
DELACROIX 5/2 Solid preparation and the choice of Ryan Moore. He may lack the wow factor but has good tactical speed and looks very likely to be involved in the finish. *****
GREEN STORM 100/1 Same ownership as Al Wasl Storm but his Group 1 second was in a very shallow race and he is easily passed over. *
LAMBOURN 10/1 Looked a dour stayer and did wear blinkers once early in his career. Looks more a St. Leger than a Derby horse unless it becomes a real slog. ***
LAZY GRIFF 40/1 Chased home Lambourn at Chester and looked to see out the trip well enough. Of the real big-priced outsiders, he appeals most to outperform the market. ***
MIDAK 11/1 Supplemented and will represent the Aga Khan’s colours with the race being named in his honour this year. Unbeaten in three starts in France and while this is tougher, the mile and a half should suit. ****
NEW GROUND 40/1 Another French-trained raider to have been supplemented but it’s hard to make any sort of case for him, given his two domestic defeats in lesser company this season.
NIGHTIME DANCER 150/1 This looks far too tough an assignment. *
NIGHTWALKER 33/1 Another for whom the St. Leger looks more suitable as he seems to lack gears. Cheekpieces are fitted to try and sharpen him up. Would be well-suited by rain as a slog would play to his strengths. ***
PRIDE OF ARRAS 9/2 Impressed in a muddling Dante showing good tactical speed. The family has handled Epsom well in the past and must enter calculations. ****
ROGUE IMPACT 200/1 Finished last in the Lingfield Derby Trial and a candidate for the wooden spoon here as well. *
RULING COURT 11/2 Winner of a strong looking 2000 Guineas. Can get a bit stirred up in the preliminaries and it is that rather than his pedigree which makes the trip a query. If he takes it all in his stride, he is a big player. ****
SEA SCOUT 100/1 Booked his place by winning the trial here in April so no queries as to his ability to handle the track, but that is where the positives end after being well beaten in the Dante.
STANHOPE GARDENS 16/1 Something of the forgotten horse having run Delacroix to a neck in the Autumn stakes last season. Bypassed the trials to win a small conditions race on his return. Can make a case for him being overpriced. ****
TENNESSEE STUD 22/1 His three-runner Group 1 win in France from Green Storm was that level in name only, and will come up short here. Any rain would improve his chances. ***
THE LION IN WINTER 7/1 Could still prove to be the class act but drawing stall 19 will not help him settle and his preparation has been a bit of a race against time. Think the best of him will be seen later in the season, and rain may not help. ***
TORNADO ALERT 40/1 His Guineas fourth was a lot to do with him setting such a steady pace and with such a big field he will not get such an easy time of things here. **
TUSCAN HILLS 50/1 Could not sustain his effort in the Dante and no obvious reason why he should reverse form with those in front of him that day, unless the ground softens. **
CONCLUSION
The solid, if unspectacular, choice looks to be DELACROIX who has had the best preparation and is the choice of Ryan Moore. RULING COURT having already won a Classic brings the best form, but that was a home game and how he copes with the preliminaries will be important. With those in a muddling Dante needing to progress again, STANHOPE GARDENS looks more appealing at the odds than PRIDE OF ARRAS, whose potential to improve seems to already be factored into the price and may encounter softer ground than he has to date.
1. DELACROIX
2. RULING COURT
3. STANHOPE GARDENS
4. PRIDE OF ARRAS
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