The horse racing broadcaster picks out his Saturday selections, including one in the first Grade 1 of the National Hunt season at Haydock.
There may be a distinct chill in the air, but there is plenty to warm the hearts of jumping fans this weekend with the emergence of several leading National Hunt horses. From Lossiemouth at Punchestown to Il Est Francais and Pic D’Orhy at Ascot, and Grey Dawning, Royale Pagaille, and Haiti Couleurs at Haydock in the first domestic Grade 1 of the season — the Betfair Chase.
The longevity of these horses is what sets jump racing apart, and the features at Haydock and Ascot include confirmed course specialists in Royale Pagaille and Pic D’Orhy, both of whom boast records of five wins from eight starts over fences at their respective venues, though with rather different profiles.
Royale Pagaille’s Haydock chase numbers are 112111P6, which include two wins in the Betfair Chase and a defeat of returning rival Grey Dawning 12 months ago. The worry, though, is whether his mask of invincibility at the track may have slipped with those last two defeats—especially as he will turn 12 in six weeks’ time. 11-year-olds are 7/132 (A/E 0.64) in Grade 1 chases in the UK over the last 25 years. Cue Card back in 2017 was the last to achieve the feat in the Ascot Chase, and the losing run since then now numbers over 30. Kauto Star did win this race in 2011 at 11, but even given Royale Pagaille’s excellent record fresh, he is passed over.
Grey Dawning is favourite and his stable is flying. After the ‘little fish are sweet’ approach to last season’s attempt to win the Jumps title, the Skelton focus this season has been to target the bigger prize-money races. Panic Attack, L’Eau Du Sud, and Thistle Ask have all been recent examples, and the yard looks set for another prolific weekend. Grey Dawning, however, is vulnerable to a slog. He is a smooth traveller but doesn’t always find what looks likely at the business end (twice beaten when trading less than 1.10 in running, including at 1.06 in this race last year). Mistakes sometimes creep in, and in HAITI COULEURS / (15:00 Haydock) he faces a sound-jumping, strong-staying rival who could well exploit any cracks in his armour. Haiti Couleurs went from strength to strength last season and, in Sean Bowen, has the ideal partner. His Irish National success at the end of a long campaign—despite getting warm beforehand—was particularly creditable, and whilst it is a step up in grade, connections clearly feel that this race, rather than the Coral Gold Cup for which he was ante-post favourite, will play to his strengths. The game plan will be obvious: to run the finish out of Grey Dawning and establish himself as the leading UK Gold Cup contender this season.
Pic D’Orhy’s Ascot numbers have a more progressive look (F4121111), and given his accuracy over fences, it is strange to remember his first season over fences ended in rather abject failure with odds-on defeats and that Ascot capsize. He did have a hard enough race in the Charlie Hall, but this will always have been high on his dance card for this season, whereas Il Est Francais’s connections may well have half an eye on the King George. Now in training in this country, Il Est Francais in full cry is a sight to behold, but those blazing efforts have contrasted sharply with some well below-par ones, with the suspicion that there is sometimes a hole that needs patching. PIC D’ORHY / (13:30 Ascot) is, at the time of writing, only third best in the market—rather surprisingly behind Jango Baie, whose jumping will come under a lot of pressure early on at a chase track that is far sharper than many give it credit for. Add in Gidleigh Park and it is a terrific race, but the durability, race fitness, and price of Pic D’Orhy sway the argument in his favour.
Even if Grey Dawning doesn’t oblige, the Skelton bandwagon should still roll on courtesy of KABRAL DU MATHAN / (13:15 Haydock) and ACE OF SPADES / (14:25 Haydock). The former was a high-profile stable switch from Paul Nicholls in the close season, and one would imagine in those circumstances Dan Skelton would want to hit the ground running. Kabral Du Mathan’s Ayr form has worked out well with three next-time-out winners (and a future Breeders’ Cup winner!) in the line-up.
Skelton has chances with both runners in the day’s big field—the 17-strong Betfair Stayers’ Hurdle — with Ace of Spades getting the vote over Joyeux Machin, who has caught the eye on several occasions. Harry Skelton choosing Ace of Spades, along with his progressive profile, tilted the scales in his favour, but there is likely to be a big payday somewhere down the line for Joyeux Machin, who has had a breathing op since his return in Chepstow’s Silver Trophy, which has also proved solid form. Ace of Spades may also prove stronger at the 3m trip than his stable companion.
The nine-race ITV coverage also features Lossiemouth’s return in the Morgiana (14:10 Punchestown), and with State Man sadly out for the season, surely a Champion Hurdle bid is on the agenda this campaign. The non-appearance of Anzadam seems to have resulted in her being rerouted from the Hatton’s Grace, and it will be interesting to see where she is campaigned en route given her defeat by Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle last season. A race to watch rather than get heavily involved in.
The last of those nine ITV races also features another horse with a good course record in FAMOUS BRIDGE / (15:35 Haydock), who is 3/5 over the Haydock fences. A pipe-opener over at Ayr will hopefully have put him spot on for this, and after a quiet start to the season, the Nicky Richards horses have picked up well in recent weeks (7/9, A/E 1.62 in November).
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