The horse racing broadcaster has five selections on offer for the final day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
Seven races on ITV on Saturday split between Goodwood (5) and Newmarket (2) but I will maintain the theme of the week by concentrating on Goodwood, where conditions have calmed down somewhat after the deluges of Thursday,
The card opens with the enigmatic Al Aasy attempting to retain his crown in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes over 1m 4f. There is no doubting he has the ability to do so, but the way the race sets up is crucial to him. If they go a good gallop, he loves passing horses and can cruise through on the bridle, but if they sit and sprint he can look faint-hearted. If wanting to oppose him at a shortish price, it makes sense therefore to do so with a horse who would be suited by a steady pace. That should be ARABIAN CROWN 12/5 (13:20 Goodwood) who can dictate the gallop under William Buick. Cut in the ground has always been crucial for him, so the rain of Thursday was very welcome and if there does look to be any golden highway after four days of racing and lots of churned up ground, William Buick will have the first opportunity to find it.
The 1m 6f Summer Handicap provides one of my favourite angles – a horse by Gleneagles encountering cut in the ground for the first time in AERONAUTIC 6/1 (13:55 Goodwood). Once a horse has a few runs on any ground you can assess its form to see how it has handled conditions, but the problem is that everyone else can too, and as shown by the card at Goodwood yesterday they often get very heavily supported and over bet. A better start point can be trying to determine whether a horse coming up against those conditions for the first time will improve for them by looking at the pedigree, starting with the sire. Gleneagles progeny on soft and heavy ground are 83/566 for an A/E of 1.29 from a big sample size. In Aeronautic’s case, the dam won and was also Listed placed on Heavy, so there is support from both sides of the pedigree. His Ascot fifth in the Copper Horse is enough to make him competitive anyway in terms of form, so any further improvement for cut in the ground would give him a great chance.
WAARDAH 4/1 (14:30 Goodwood) steps up in grade in Group 2 Lillie Langtry, but her performance in a Listed race here in May over 10f was a dominant one. She has always been kept well away from quick ground, so is another for whom the rain earlier in the week was welcome. It may be getting the ground is why connections are happy to up her in trip by a full 4f, but she was very strong at the finish that day and is on the upgrade. Owen Burrows does not tend to over face his horses (25/112 in all UK and Irish Group Races, A/E 1.55) and she looks the potential improver in an otherwise exposed field.
The big handicap of the week is the Stewards Cup, always a great spectacle with the large field charging over the brow of the hill. HAMMER THE HAMMER 5/1 (15:05 Goodwood) has been a big improver this season since moving into handicaps and his Royal Ascot second in the Holyrood House represented a career best, even though he shaped as though a return to 6f would suit. That race has looked a little shallow down the field but both the horses he split in Adrestia and Redorange ran well here earlier in the week, and he looks to be improving at a rate of knots. Stall 4 commits him to the far side, but he does look to have one of the most forward run styles over on that side of the track and so should avoid any of the traffic issues that can blight the chances of the hold-up horses. Completely Random is one of those and is definitely worthy of consideration, but is also drawn on the wing in stall 1 and he may want the ground to dry a shade as well as needing the breaks.
The last of the 25 live races on ITV from Goodwood this week is another trappy handicap but YAH MO BE THERE 11/1 (15:45 Goodwood) has plenty going for him, having been campaigned in Pattern race company in his five runs since his debut in a York Novice. Those runs include a Listed race win at Newbury in the Rose Bowl, and he has run much better than the bare form figures suggest in his three runs this campaign. He has just not had the races run to suit in terms of tempo and has often ended up in the worst positions tactically. In the Jersey last time he also ended up in the wrong group who were always too far back, but despite that came through to lead that bunch and the tempo of this race should be far more up his street. Coupled with the drop in grade, he can weave through the pack under a trademark Spencer ride to land the spoils.
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