The horse racing broadcaster picks out his best bets from Saturday's flat racing and looks ahead to the Oaks and Derby ante-post markets.
After the attention on the Classic generation over the last few weeks, the focus switches to Newbury this weekend with the first Group 1 for the older horses, the Lockinge Stakes. It has attracted a really strong line up, with the winners of both last season’s UK and Irish 2000 Guineas in Notable Speech and Rosallion, Dancing Gemini (second in the French 2000) and throw in the filly Tamfana, an unlucky fourth in last year’s 1000.
When Notable Speech showed a terrific turn of foot to beat Rosallion in last season’s Guineas, so rapid had been his progress that I thought nothing behind him that day would reverse the form. Fast forward to the St. James Palace and he trailed in well behind Rosallion who showed a sharp turn of foot to overcome a pace bias as he had also done in the Irish Guineas. Clearly not himself that day, a rematch between the pair in the Sussex was a mouth-watering prospect only for a respiratory infection to keep Rosallion not only away that day but for the rest of the season.
The Hannon camp will be bullish as their fortunes have picked up in the last week or so but if Rosallion has a weakness it can be his keenness and after such a long absence and with the prospect of a season ahead, will his fitness hold out? Notable Speech also had the benefit of a solid All-Weather campaign before the Guineas last year but he generally settled the better of the two and the ground should be in his favour. When the trials were run at Newbury in April and again there had been extensive watering, there looked to be an advantage in racing stands side (high numbers) and whether the ground rides loose or quick will be a key factor (writing before racing on Friday).
Dancing Gemini and Tamfana also have scores to settle after their 1-2 in the Mile at Sandown where Tamfana carried the Group 1 penalty and looked to my eye the more likely of the two to come out on top here. The caveat is the form of the yard (check how Sunway has performed earlier in the 12:50) but she can make the frame but as yet neither have the profile of the two Guineas winners.
Of that pair, the fast ground, higher draw, and bigger price means NOTABLE SPEECH 4/1 (13:50 Newbury) gets the vote on the day but hopefully, this will be just the first of a series of clashes in a division that has been crying out for races of this quality.
Newbury gets underway earlier than usual because of the Cup Final and the opener looks a race full of ifs buts and maybes. AL AASY 5/2 (12:50 Newbury) has not always looked the heartiest but his return at Sandown, down in trip and coming from the back off a steady pace lends encouragement to him mellowing with age. Behind him that day was See The Fire who was so impressive at York in the Middleton and Al Aasy looks a big enough price against others with their own queries in terms of interrupted careers through injury, the need to reach for blinkers, or again in Sunway’s case, the form of the yard.
The London Gold Cup is traditionally a warm contest and one that the Charltons have often targeted in the past so WAVE RIDER 9/2 (14:00 Newbury) has likely had this earmarked for a while. This is his first foray into handicaps and a rise in trip of 3 furlongs should suit down to the ground on pedigree. Since 2011 the race has gone to the Charlton yard on no less than 5 occasions including the likes of Al Kazeem and Time Test. They were both trained by Roger but Harry wasted little time in picking up the mantle with the success of Kings Gambit last season.
However Rosallion fares Richard Hannon should be in the Newbury winner’s enclosure courtesy of NAKEEB 9/2 (16:55 Newbury) who looks to have been given a very fair opening mark in the closing mile handicap and rates the bet of the entire afternoon. It would be no surprise if, based on his home reputation, he does not end up in Pattern company by the end of the season.
Newmarket provides the other leg of ITV’s coverage and here ARABIAN LEOPARD 11/2 (13:40 Newmarket) and CLASSIC ENCOUNTER 13/8 (14:15 Newmarket) look the pick of the three races.
CLASSIC CORNER
With the majority of the trials for the Derby and the Oaks now run, who appeals as the most likely players in the two Classics now just three weeks away?
Derby
Little doubt in my mind that the horse that has emerged as the stand-out candidate is Delacroix. While Aidan O’Brien largely filled his boots at Chester and Lingfield with trial winners, it is Delacroix who has had the traditional Galileo, High Chaparall preparation in landing the Ballysax and Leopardstown Derby trial prep, exhibiting a good combination of tactical speed and athleticism.
Aidan has twice confounded me in the Derby by turning around the woeful Guineas runs of Auguste Rodin and City of Troy but it would be an even bigger feat if he does the same with The Lion In Winter after his disappointing Dante return. Aidan has often gone on record as saying the Dante is not a trial they target due to its proximity to Epsom and I think when the dust settles if The Lion In Winter goes to a Derby it will be the French version.
Lambourn and Puppet Master looked solid but not spectacular in winning their trials and it was the runner-up at Lingfield Stay True who not surprisingly attracted more attention when looking as if he could have won with a more aggressive ride. It reminded me very much of Port Douglas from Chester a few years ago and clearly he rates as the better prospect going forward, but it will require another major step forward to win a Derby. He would have place claims should he line up and it will be interesting to see how many O’Brien horses end up in the field on the day. Lambourn appeals more as a St Leger type.
After the O’Brien domination, it was good to see a different storyline be opened up by Pride Of Arras winning the Dante on just his 2nd career start. He very much bucked the trend for the Beckett yard whose horses have been slow to come to hand and very much takes the eye physically. The fact remains, however, that the Derby will be just his 3rd career run and off quite a rapid turnaround from York. He provides a welcome extra dynamic but at this stage the market reaction looked overplayed in shortening him so much and I would be surprised if he goes off much shorter on the day.
Oaks
In all honesty, outside Desert Flower, and one very notable exception this division has looked weak and there hasn’t been too much in any of the trials to change my view. Minnie Hauk and Whirl both pressed their claims for filling out the frame and from the 1000 Guineas Chantilly Lace looked as if she has the scope and stamina to take a step forward but Desert Flower was comfortably the best at Newmarket and her relaxed style gives her every chance of lasting the trip. I expect her to be shorter than her current price on the day.
The notable exception I referred to was Falakeyah who looked an absolute monster when winning the Pretty Polly tanking along out in front and finding plenty. She has bags of potential but both her physique and free-going nature mean that either a run in the French Oaks (10f) or even a tilt at the Irish Guineas would look better steps in her long-term development than lining up at Epsom.
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