The horse racing broadcaster offers up his best bets for Saturday's action, including a selection in the big race of the day, the Eclipse.
The feature race of the weekend is the Eclipse, featuring not just the traditional clash of the generations but also an intriguing tactical duel between Godolphin and Coolmore, who each have a pair in the six-runner field.
Pace could be the key. Ombudsman, while undoubtedly impressive in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot, looked to benefit from a rare Coolmore error as pacemaker Continuous overdid it on the front end and first Los Angeles and then a succession of horses all played their hands too early. The race featured no less than five different leaders in the last quarter mile, and meeting trouble when he did might have made Ombudsman look more impressive than if he had delivered his challenge at the same time as Anmaat. The first four home at Ascot all raced in the last four positions early on, and every time a new leader emerged travelling well, a glance behind showed that there was another going even better in behind, with Ombudsman only getting out to make his effort after the others had expended their energy.
The best way to decide what to oppose the short-priced favourite with is to work out which horses would be suited best if conditions played out in a different manner to Ascot, and the race was not as strongly run. This has to be the objective of Coolmore via Camille Pissarro and DELACROIX / (15:35 Sandown), who could well use their greater tactical speed to control the race. Delacroix was very disappointing in the Derby as a bump or two early saw him get far further back than anticipated. He did, however, flash some speed early in the straight, clocking the fastest sectional of the entire field at the 9f point. The smaller field and potential for a different pace set up, along with – most importantly – the big difference in prices can see Coolmore atone for their rare Ascot misstep.
Ruling Court could well be used to try and interrupt any attempt to steady the pace, but he just never travelled early on the St. James’s Palace and it is hard to see Godolphin use a 2000 Guineas winner as a ‘disrupter’, even though that would clearly help Ombudsman. Sosie must be a big doubt on quick ground, which undermined so many French challenges at Ascot, while a case can certainly be made for Hotazhell being overpriced on a line through his defeat of Delacroix at Doncaster in the Futurity.
With the tempo and the jockey choices of William Buick and Ryan Moore all key factors, it all adds up to a fascinating renewal.
In the Group 3 Charge, SHE’S QUALITY / (13:50 Sandown) can gain compensation for her narrow Haydock defeat. Racing off the rail did not help her in the closing stages on that day, whereas this time she has the necessary speed to bag the fence herself from stall 4.
GREEK ORDER / (14:25 Sandown) narrowly failed to land a big gamble when sent off favourite for the 2023 Cambridgeshire, and after an abortive spell in the US, showed he retains plenty of that ability when fourth in the Hunt Cup on his first start for new connections. The run also did not escape attention of Ryan Moore, who has a record of 19/86 (A/E 1.12) when riding for the yard, which improves still further to 7/20 (A/E 1.64) if just taking the last five seasons.
At Haydock, most eyes will be on the statuesque grey Estrange, who has scared off the opposition in the Lancashire Oaks at 14:40, but with the yard a little quiet she does not appeal as a betting proposition at prohibitive odds. Of more interest is POINT OF CONTACT / (16:55 Haydock), a fine stamp of a horse who was forced to miss the Britannia due to fast ground, so any rain on the build-up to the race would be a plus.
ROYAL ASCOT RECAP: SPRINTERS
With the July Cup just around the corner, the focus this week is on how the sprint division looks after the three Group 1s at the Royal Meeting.
The domestic sprint division still shows no signs of really picking up significantly. The Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes for the older sprinters on the last day of Royal Ascot summed it up perfectly. If any decent overseas sprinters (Ireland not included) line up, then our major prizes are at their mercy and Lazzat for France and Satono Reve for Japan stretched a long way clear in fighting out a really good finish. Take nothing away from that pair. Lazzat has largely been campaigned over further on softer ground yet was able to control the race from halfway and repel his Japanese challenger, who was drawn a little away from his rival and just gave up a bit of track position, which he couldn’t get back. Lazzat’s only UK entry is in the newly promoted Group 1 City of York over 7f, and the Maurice de Gheest over 6½f at Deauville may also be on the agenda, rather than any temptation to supplement for the July Cup (£36k by noon July 7)
Flora of Bermuda ran home third, and with no overseas challengers in the July Cup she will likely head the domestic challenge. Her slow breaks seem a thing of the past as she flew out here, and given the way the race panned out should not have wasted that by being restrained as much as she was. She met a bump when trying to improve and was value for being a clearer third, though still no match for the front pair. Inisherin gave the impression it was all happening too fast at 6f on quick ground and looks more of a 7f horse these days.
The younger version of the 6f division the Commonwealth Cup also did not throw up any stand-out sprinting candidates. Time for Sandals deserved her victory but with Arizona Blaze having his 14th start in second, there were few new kids on the block. It looked a missed opportunity for Shadow of Light, who looked not to let himself down on the ground, moving notably short late on, and he should not be ruled out yet as a sprinter. The likelihood of cut in the ground and an extra ½ furlong means he is also likely to be Maurice de Gheest bound, but could well be back at Ascot on Champions Day for the 6f sprint. There were a few hard luck stories, with Rayevka taking a rather scenic route and Whistlejacket and Big Mojo meeting significant trouble in running.
Things are not much different at 5f, where the rationale for siding with American Affair was the fact the King Charles III make-up resembled more of a big-field handicap than a Group race, and so it proved. I am still surprised Regional is not being tried at 6f (no July Cup entry either) but if he was to be supplemented he would be of massive interest. Currently it is only a Flying Five entry that he holds in Ireland, so perhaps other issues are having to be managed. Starlust’s best runs are over 5f so far, but he came from further back than most and will strip fitter, so could well try the extra furlong again at Newmarket.
The other horse worthy of a mention is Symbol of Honour, who as a gelding was not eligible for the Commonwealth Cup but can run in the July Cup as it is an all-aged affair. He has proved a rare beacon of consistency in his runs this term and it seems likely he will be flying the Godolphin flag at their home track. Usually, his wins would leave him a bit to find, but in a division that is crying out for a bit of quality his chance looks as good as any at this stage.
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