The horse racing broadcaster offers up his best bets for Wednesday at Cheltenham, including a pick in the feature race of the day, the Champion Chase.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle (13:20)
More big fields on Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival resulted in a few high‑profile horses failing to make the cut in the handicaps, and a maximum field lines up in the opening race of the day, the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, with the rerouting of Mighty Park possibly encouraging a few others to take their chances.
Take any clues from the form lines from the Supreme, especially with Talk of the Talk, who can give a pointer to the chances of BALLYFAD 11/1 (13:20 Cheltenham), who was just beaten by that horse in the DRF, with another of today’s runners, King Rasko Grey, in third. While in theory setting steady fractions suited front‑runners, it left Ballyfad vulnerable to those with a better turn of foot. He has progressed with each run over hurdles, with his victories underpinned by seeing out the trip well at 2 miles, but he has enough tactical speed to get a position. The increase in trip will surely see him to better effect, and it is a vote of confidence that Jack Kennedy chose him over Skylight Hustle, who has similar form credentials. One slight concern is that Ballyfad jumped to the right at Leopardstown, but that was when making the running, and if Jack can position him tracking the leaders on the inner, that can at least mitigate any recurrence and allow him to drift to the stands’ rail on the run‑in, which is often an advantage with the rail helping to keep tiring horses straight.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (14:00)
The Brown Advisory is run over slightly further this year, with one extra fence to facilitate an easier start, which will be a big help as this renewal has attracted a field of 16. After Final Demand’s blowout at the DRF, the key line of form could well prove to be last year’s Albert Bartlett, where THE BIG WESTERNER 12/1 (14:00 Cheltenham) finished second and Wendigo, who met considerable interference, was fifth. Both have chances, but preference goes to The Big Westerner, who has always looked the type to progress over fences, such is her imposing physique. She took the scalp of Jade De Grugy at Limerick over Christmas, and the step up in trip looks certain to be within her compass. Any rain from Tuesday overnight into Wednesday will be a help, as cut in the ground would be a plus. If she is withdrawn due to the ground, then Wendigo would be the back‑up.
The first handicap of the day possibly sees my heart ruling my head, but such is BALLYADAM’s 25/1 (14:40 Cheltenham) wonderful Festival record that he can’t be ignored at such a big price. Second in a Supreme, twice fifth in County Hurdles, and second and third in this race, he is now an 11‑year‑old, so there is always the danger age will weary him, but he is ideally suited by the way these Festival handicaps pan out. Sadly, the grader hasn’t cut him much slack, and as a result a 5 lb claimer has been booked in Patrick O’Brien, but hopefully the old boy knows his way round blindfolded and again can be involved at the finish. His odds certainly once again seem to dismiss his Festival record too readily.
Now a handicap, the Cross Country has a slightly lopsided look to it, and hopefully Stumptown has ensured an ideal weight for stable companion VANILLIER 7/1 (15:20 Cheltenham). Placed in a Grand National, it was somewhat ironic that he lost his chance in this last year by going very wide at the Aintree fence—his rider seeming not to anticipate the Canal Turn‑style bend—and he did well to finish third. Despite winning over the Banks at Punchestown last time, beating The Goffer, he lines up off a lower mark than last year and can deny chief danger Favori De Champdou.
The feature race of the day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase and features the shortest‑priced favourite of the “Big Four” in MAJBOROUGH 10/11 (16:00 Cheltenham), for whom the main danger seems to be the obstacles rather than the opposition. He finally put it all together last time in first‑time cheekpieces at the DRF when ridden more aggressively, and while my instinct was initially to try to take him on, I just can’t find either a “with‑what” or a solid each‑way bet in opposition. This is mainly because, with no stable other than his own doubly represented, I can’t really see anyone jeopardising their own chances by taking him on early, and that hands him a big advantage in time to measure his fences. He made at least two serious errors last season in the Arkle and still finished ahead of L’Eau Du Sud, while Il Etait Temps also has Cheltenham errors in his back catalogue. I was tempted by Quilixios, but he has been off for ages, and pictures of him swimming rather than galloping reinforce that he is not easy to train, and as such he doesn’t make each‑way appeal either. If you do like Quilixios, a win bet without the favourite was as close to an angle as I could entertain. It may be a race to sit out and simply enjoy seeing a horse with a fantastic engine really begin to fulfil his potential—but if you back Majborough, you may be hiding behind the sofa!
It is a shame Marine Nationale doesn’t line up in the Queen Mother, as his stablemate JAZZY MATTY 15/2 (16:40 Cheltenham) can once again leave his form behind when rocking up at the Festival looking for a repeat win in the Grand Annual. They provided the late Michael O’Sullivan with a memorable Festival double before offering a poignant encore last season. Jazzy Matty has had a wind operation since his last run, and the cheekpieces he wore for the first time when winning this race last year are reapplied. He is higher in the weights this time, but such is his Festival record in big handicaps that he is still worth siding with, especially as his task looks to have been made easier by Ryan’s Rocket looking unlikely to get a run as second reserve.
The bumper rounds off Day 2, and it is always tricky trying to weigh the merit of the victories of all but one of the 22‑strong field. KEEP HIM COMPANY 13/2 (17:20 Cheltenham) gets the nod off the back of two solid wins, coupled with being the choice of Jack Kennedy. His sire has a good record with bumper horses (6/21, A/E 1.98), and he has impressed with the way he travels through his races—though in fairness, that can be said for quite a few in the field, whose races were far shallower than the test they will meet here.
